TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes48c3,982$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.52810.7%3 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No33c3,737$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.92666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c02…e658backed Yes63c2,378$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No33c1,937$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.71933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked Yes50c1,843$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No14c1,774$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No1c1,675$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No42c1,599$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-72.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No4c1,594$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.97190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes65c1,478$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.821637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-45.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes74c1,343$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes39c1,240$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.412352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.19per pick33cpaid+10.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No33c1,199$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.231010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-85.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No17c999.94$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.991833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c998.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.46474.3%2 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+286.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No54c868$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No8c857.3$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.084723.4%11 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes58c840.4$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No53c802.41$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.18944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No7c791.53$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.43214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No14c742.34$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.54742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x506b…b0febacked Yes46c725.99$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No37c720.43$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.942524%6 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No8c699.97$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561625%4 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+100.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No31c618$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.381050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No43c606$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…92dabacked No77c588.8$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f08…54d3backed Yes25c566.36$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.961291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.39per pick52cpaid+103.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No8c558.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.76563.6%2 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c554.16$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.556933.3%23 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No47c538.17$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.62944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No8c528.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.88464.3%2 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes54c525.4$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.411315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-73.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c510.32$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.881050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No46c456.89$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No20c446.46$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No22c416.71$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.64837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No38c372.05$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.841729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+186.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes66c348.91$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.87333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No13c331.9$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No7c313.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.161323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No37c303.68$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.952718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed No60c300$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf25c…732cbacked Yes17c300$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2491100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes46c285.67$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5736…01a8backed No69c279.66$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No11c262.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa6…6316backed No16c252.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2c…6bf7backed Yes77c250$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed Yes28c249.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes44c247.96$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.81225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e27…7ae6backed Yes41c242.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No5c241.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6a…3b2ebacked Yes72c235.1$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes52c235$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…d2a7backed Yes59c234$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c222.47$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.621457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No31c209.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-43.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes40c200.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.491020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1563100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+158.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes41c200$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick28cpaid+144.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed No7c186$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad03…9bcabacked No55c181$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8023…29efbacked Yes56c177.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c173.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab2…d318backed Yes58c173.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c43…97f8backed Yes58c173.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe978…ec32backed Yes66c151.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c150.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.573432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…0d5dbacked Yes66c150.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e5…fc2fbacked Yes43c139.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3400…0e6bbacked Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No45c127.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.11933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0abf…aea9backed Yes80c123.23$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd12f…e85abacked Yes24c122.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.721822.2%4 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793b…80a8backed Yes80c109.73$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes24c106$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.56450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b3a…b9e6backed Yes70c99.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes68c94.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.54540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No23c90.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd1…870ebacked Yes16c90$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-48.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e8…a0cbbacked No28c89.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc538…c555backed No22c86.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No26c85.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.38650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes76c84.21$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No27c71.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53568.9%5 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f2f…756abacked Yes69c70$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a24…2605backed Yes48c70$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x582b…7d2bbacked Yes72c69.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a8…2e7ebacked No54c67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…63dbbacked No30c66.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8394…8d66backed No77c63.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No49c60.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f1…3c5ebacked No28c60.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bab…3995backed Yes53c56.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No41c54.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.455211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No57c54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.