TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2700…f2d0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$73.8
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.35
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$14.85
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.36
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$29.86
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.57
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$26.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$229.06
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.17
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+97.5%+$55.96
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.91
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.1
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+125.5%+$303.34
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$13.42
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.17
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$156.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+94.1%+$275.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$34.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$22.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+29%+$76.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$52.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.