Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa42e59d6ce3eab13d5b084102c49be68195e55d476548bc4c54c2aaefd797a85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 6c | 4,088$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.59 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 673.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 21c | 672.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.86 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…638abacked No | 75c | 648.72$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 641.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 31c | 514.91$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.01 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 441.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 72c | 431.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.06 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 19c | 387.08$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed Yes | 25c | 318.85$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 3c | 297.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 260.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 23c | 237.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 29c | 222.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 18c | 220.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 219.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb74…2402backed Yes | 17c | 211.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 6c | 209.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 8c | 208.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 207.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 27c | 197.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 13c | 196.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 193.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 178.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed No | 75c | 175.08$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 171.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 75c | 163.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 72c | 162.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 30c | 155.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 153.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 21c | 149.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 146.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 146.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 139.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 138.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 31c | 136.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 25c | 135.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 10c | 127.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 76c | 122.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 26c | 119.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 118.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 70c | 111.59$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 106.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 104$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 31c | 102.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4826…79dabacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 98.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 27c | 97.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 25c | 96.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 94.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…b975backed Yes | 25c | 93.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +91%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 29c | 90.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 79c | 86.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 78c | 85.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 84.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 28c | 82.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 80.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 28c | 75.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…e304backed Yes | 26c | 71.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 37c | 69.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…f921backed No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 73c | 67.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…bf47backed No | 74c | 67.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 72c | 62.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 78c | 62.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed Yes | 22c | 60.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 78c | 60.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 72c | 57.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 29c | 54.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 28c | 54.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 70c | 53.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 52.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 73c | 49.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5457…2ba9backed Yes | 30c | 46.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 46.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 25c | 46.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes | 24c | 44.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…e954backed Yes | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Yes | 24c | 41.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 27c | 41.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…8f32backed No | 76c | 41.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 26c | 38.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…ba11backed Yes | 31c | 38.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 76c | 38.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 29c | 34.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.