TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0941…b254backed Yes6c4,088$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5911935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c673.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.157,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c672.96$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.861,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6349…638abacked No75c648.72$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes7c641.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes31c514.91$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes7c441.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.885,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No72c431.26$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0639966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes19c387.08$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed Yes25c318.85$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.171866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes3c297.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.427932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c260.82$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes23c237.48$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes29c222.87$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.372832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes18c220.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7230131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c219.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.829,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb74…2402backed Yes17c211.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes6c209.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes8c208.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.13434.7%2 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes13c207.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes27c197.82$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.415846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes13c196.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.081,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes12c193.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes29c178.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9419123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed No75c175.08$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.021145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes25c171.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0147136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x928a…0e27backed No75c163.94$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.039054.4%49 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No72c162.51$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7219547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes30c155.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes26c153.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.941,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes21c149.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.371,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes25c146.42$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.591,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes27c146.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.861,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes20c139.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes28c138.18$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1daf…f773backed Yes31c136.51$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.991915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes25c135.67$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6de…9452backed Yes10c127.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.188428.6%24 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No76c122.78$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4749854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes26c119.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.996719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No74c118.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed No70c111.59$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.029344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes24c110$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.520534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes14c106.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c104$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.869,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes31c102.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.288551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4826…79dabacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239028.9%26 W · 64 L+6.8wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+35%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2827732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes16c98.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.891,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes27c97.57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2819160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes25c96.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No74c94.03$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.832,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…b975backed Yes25c93.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.441442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+91%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes29c90.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.045731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd011…0b65backed No79c86.18$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.833253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked Yes26c86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.361650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No78c85.49$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0629770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes26c84.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.923,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes28c82.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No74c80.49$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.291,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes28c75.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes26c71.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.283933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes37c69.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.532343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x018d…f921backed No74c67.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No73c67.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.126376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd425…bf47backed No74c67.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.435068%34 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No72c62.95$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6327167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No78c62.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7910059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked No78c62.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.457758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes22c60.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6616550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…95c4backed No78c60.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.343775.7%28 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No72c57.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed Yes29c54.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes28c54.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.325729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed05…9368backed No70c53.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-62.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c52.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeda…b697backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168872.7%64 W · 24 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No73c49.67$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.219462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29d…747bbacked Yes30c49.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.833511.4%4 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick16cpaid+208%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes28c49.35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.923636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes26c49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.741,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5457…2ba9backed Yes30c46.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes30c46.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2e…39e5backed Yes25c46.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.622634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No79c45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes24c44.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1631…e954backed Yes30c43.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.031020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-44%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes24c41.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.174447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No72c41.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes27c41.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbeb…8f32backed No76c41.28$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes26c38.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0219541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…ba11backed Yes31c38.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d6…8b53backed No76c38.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.145154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d56…92e6backed Yes29c34.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.153647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.