Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf012ec90a6b23ec94fc0e5e20406e4696cba421e68e99afbf1577c34363dae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 2,127$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.86 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed Yes | 41c | 1,941$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.66 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 77c | 1,141$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.38 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 995.62$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 29c | 890.39$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.97 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 41c | 806.74$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.6 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 6c | 797.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked No | 80c | 751.25$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed No | 25c | 641.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 21c | 587.47$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.82 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 14c | 580.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.03 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 8c | 536.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.47 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 484.53$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 452.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 448.54$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 23c | 423.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.07 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 16c | 406$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes | 16c | 363.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 12c | 361.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.03 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 7c | 352.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 352.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 343.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5c…ce66backed No | 72c | 341.2$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 73cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes | 16c | 307.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 7c | 302.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.9 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 280.44$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 17c | 273.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.32 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 41c | 261.13$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.81 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 7c | 256.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.41 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 246.48$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 236.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes | 20c | 234.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.78 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 16c | 233.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 10c | 229.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.81 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 25c | 211.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 208.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 77c | 205.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed No | 71c | 204.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.89 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 13c | 191.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.03 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 34c | 186$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 13c | 185.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 16c | 181.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 179.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 177.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 45c | 177.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 8c | 172.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 64c | 168.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 50c | 164.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 43c | 153.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 148.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 17c | 142.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes | 72c | 141.13$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 12c | 139.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.53 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…f773backed Yes | 18c | 132.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.07 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 12c | 129.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 63c | 126.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 31c | 121.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 116.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 17c | 114.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 12c | 113.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 13c | 112.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 12c | 110.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988a…9e6fbacked No | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 71c | 102.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 100.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.45 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…0a4cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 22c | 97.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe050…5b4dbacked Yes | 13c | 96.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…dc6ebacked Yes | 21c | 96.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 20c | 92.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 18c | 91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 17c | 90.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 14c | 89.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e32…da9fbacked Yes | 55c | 85.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 59c | 81.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 44c | 80.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes | 14c | 80.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 38c | 77.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 19c | 75.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 75.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e2…02ecbacked Yes | 47c | 73.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe0…1b89backed Yes | 33c | 71.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 16c | 68.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…f921backed No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 66.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked No | 29c | 65.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 20c | 62.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 62.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…0f44backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +303.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…519dbacked No | 25c | 54.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 78c | 54.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.