TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,566 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef98…7926backed Yes10c2,127$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.8642315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes41c1,941$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.665853.4%31 W · 27 L+9.8wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+188.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No77c1,141$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.381,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes45c995.62$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes29c890.39$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.9731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes41c806.74$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd496…00ecbacked No6c797.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.183627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No80c751.25$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5998068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No25c641.69$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8713250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes21c587.47$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.8214236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb20f…5737backed Yes14c580.01$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.035525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes8c536.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.4757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c484.53$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.85,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes11c452.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.521,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c448.54$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.464,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes23c423.68$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.0717135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes16c406$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.391,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a5…859cbacked Yes16c363.7$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.512420.8%5 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes12c361.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.032638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes7c352.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.1295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c352.28$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c343.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.351,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c5c…ce66backed No72c341.2$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.36757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick73cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes16c307.41$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.66540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes7c302.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.918327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No29c280.44$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.667,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes17c273.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.3223738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c51…7c37backed Yes41c261.13$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.815933.9%20 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes7c256.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.4141046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c246.48$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes7c236.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.61,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a7e…465cbacked Yes20c234.73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.782927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes16c233.26$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.619344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes10c229.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.8157038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes25c211.78$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.512832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes23c208.5$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.441,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3e…d953backed Yes77c205.64$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.236369.8%44 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed No71c204.76$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.273839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes15c199.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.891,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes13c191.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0310354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes34c186$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8915545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes13c185.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1319123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes16c181.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes10c179.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2630813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes56c177.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.372,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No45c177.65$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1495852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes8c172.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1820534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No64c168.23$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes50c164.96$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.488946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes43c153.28$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.797855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c148.33$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.398160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes17c142.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0437533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes72c141.13$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.211662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes12c139.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5330131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1daf…f773backed Yes18c132.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.071915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-46.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes12c129.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.3117140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No63c126.35$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.013,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes31c121.87$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7514645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes17c116.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.867,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes17c114.22$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes12c113.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes13c112.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.1410426%27 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes12c110.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5312147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x988a…9e6fbacked No33c109$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.651241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b3e…b127backed Yes71c102.43$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.761758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes11c100.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4554143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab6…0a4cbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-76.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes22c97.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.2193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe050…5b4dbacked Yes13c96.82$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+153.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47a1…dc6ebacked Yes21c96.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+138.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes20c92.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9621272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes18c91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6237942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes17c90.86$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.3120942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes12c90$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.216234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes14c89.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9345148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e32…da9fbacked Yes55c85.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes59c81.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.461,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes20c81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.84129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes44c80.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.352045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcea…18cbbacked Yes14c80.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.523839.5%15 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes38c77.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.049346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No19c75.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No62c75.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.791,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e2…02ecbacked Yes47c73.8$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe0…1b89backed Yes33c71.36$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.511560%9 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+43.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3141…f16abacked No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565563.6%35 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes16c68.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.968013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x018d…f921backed No74c67.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.99560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No77c66.4$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.339,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ab…9c0ebacked No29c65.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.573426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b11…9f63backed Yes20c62.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.08362.8%1 W · 35 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes20c62.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes17c60$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.614626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf056…0f44backed Yes25c56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+303.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f7…7bb4backed Yes20c56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.84025%10 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef3…519dbacked No25c54.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed No78c54.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4510652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes27c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No79c49.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.493158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.