TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,670

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes4c1,002$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…109fbacked No42c660.21$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.53852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes36c597.84$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes38c469.39$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.645,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes6c390.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0614236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes51c388.52$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.961,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c381.7$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.162,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No75c374.94$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No60c368.17$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.5760523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c359.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.463,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes29c352.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.68151.9%42 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes25c329.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6786420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed Yes71c322.17$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.061866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes48c321.37$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.17540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+68.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes53c301.64$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1516437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes60c293.06$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.6933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes72c290.58$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0410658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes8c273.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.187,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes50c270.53$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes19c254.34$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes73c253.22$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.431353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes23c249.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5596313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c242.13$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes70c235.91$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.271330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No34c201.73$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.2563656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes48c199.98$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.995846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No54c187.1$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8719547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c171$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes14c165$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b7f…7076backed Yes10c160.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.462030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes80c160$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.23644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes47c158.08$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.261,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c149.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No64c135.56$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.857038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No42c132.76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes37c123.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes63c117.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.589341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba5…8434backed Yes58c117.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.672343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes55c117.24$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0539541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes48c116.33$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes59c114.68$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.669,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c111.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes43c111.47$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No51c111.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3734250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes17c110.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.333426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes74c110.66$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.757855.1%43 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No44c107.56$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.242,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes35c104.34$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.164333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18de…0b64backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes67c99.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.881827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cf…7ddfbacked Yes61c99.47$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.53560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde76…c533backed Yes59c98.16$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8f…171bbacked Yes57c97.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes39c95$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.919541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes57c92.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0619123%44 W · 147 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e2…02ecbacked Yes61c92.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes14c91.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.884124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc06…0db6backed Yes53c90.01$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.65933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No45c88.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes25c87.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.155139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes55c86.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.753250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes62c86.58$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6845148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes39c84.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No35c84.08$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9929770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes48c83.27$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.242045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes18c83.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.621,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No60c82.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0216456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes46c82.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.121040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No56c80.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.349,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c79.36$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.152,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes14c78.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.762420.8%5 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba5…9a02backed Yes49c76.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.982835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb903…f048backed Yes51c74.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed No46c71.56$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.812638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes61c71.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes35c70.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.559626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes36c70.18$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.071,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes57c69.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No23c69.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.71,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No64c69.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8916548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes36c69.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210645.3%48 W · 58 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes26c68.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.597932.9%26 W · 53 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x018d…f921backed No74c67.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes73c66.64$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6514626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes30c66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No38c65.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7853547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No58c60.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3483360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes54c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd1a…1a27backed Yes48c59.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes79c58.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.211968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee5d…4143backed Yes70c56.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7180%0 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No45c56.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.948946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes55c56.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0811249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108f…ee30backed Yes46c55.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.171233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2e…39e5backed Yes50c54.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.122634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba60…8d09backed Yes49c53.44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77d…7383backed Yes58c53.12$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.871323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-55.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes43c52.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa542…3f6cbacked No52c52.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.475141.2%21 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.