Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c036ee3eb0eb21ea606c7f15b576377540bb6c38d2a9cc76cffbf5f9b5178ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,002$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 42c | 660.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 597.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 469.39$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 6c | 390.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 51c | 388.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 381.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 75c | 374.94$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 60c | 368.17$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 359.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 29c | 352.5$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 329.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed Yes | 71c | 322.17$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…25c9backed Yes | 48c | 321.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 53c | 301.64$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 60c | 293.06$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 72c | 290.58$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 273.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 270.53$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 19c | 254.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…bfbebacked Yes | 73c | 253.22$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 23c | 249.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 242.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes | 70c | 235.91$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 34c | 201.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 54c | 187.1$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 171$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 10c | 160.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 80c | 160$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 158.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 135.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 132.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 37c | 123.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 63c | 117.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 58c | 117.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 55c | 117.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 48c | 116.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 59c | 114.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 38c | 111.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 111.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 51c | 111.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…9c0ebacked Yes | 17c | 110.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 74c | 110.66$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 44c | 107.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 104.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…d445backed Yes | 67c | 99.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…7ddfbacked Yes | 61c | 99.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…c533backed Yes | 59c | 98.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…171bbacked Yes | 57c | 97.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 57c | 92.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e2…02ecbacked Yes | 61c | 92.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 14c | 91.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc06…0db6backed Yes | 53c | 90.01$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 45c | 88.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 25c | 87.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 55c | 86.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 62c | 86.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 39c | 84.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 35c | 84.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 48c | 83.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 83.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 60c | 82.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…e7fcbacked Yes | 46c | 82.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 80.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 79.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…858bbacked Yes | 14c | 78.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…9a02backed Yes | 49c | 76.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…f048backed Yes | 51c | 74.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 46c | 71.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 61c | 71.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 35c | 70.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 70.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 57c | 69.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 23c | 69.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 64c | 69.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 69.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 26c | 68.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…f921backed No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 73c | 66.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 38c | 65.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.78 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed Yes | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…1a27backed Yes | 48c | 59.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9c…7e2fbacked Yes | 79c | 58.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5d…4143backed Yes | 70c | 56.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 45c | 56.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 55c | 56.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…ee30backed Yes | 46c | 55.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 50c | 54.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba60…8d09backed Yes | 49c | 53.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 58c | 53.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 52.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 52c | 52.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.