Weather · resolved market
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4495596ef99ce27149438102ea678eaba0c46053ce37abda7140680cc84b13ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,295,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,272,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,295,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 2c | 33,051$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 77c | 31,387$24,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,162.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 76c | 28,500$21,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,807.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 51c | 26,299$13,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,781.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed No | 33c | 20,741$6,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,895.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7e…cb13backed Yes | 36c | 17,717$6,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,350.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…d9dabacked No | 2c | 15,588$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.46 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 5c | 13,932$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,187.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +306.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 18c | 13,590$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,091.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 13,107$8,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,906.52 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed No | 72c | 13,082$9,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,399.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 23c | 12,800$2,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,948.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -73%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 12,374$3,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,576.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…c61abacked Yes | 45c | 11,761$5,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,417.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…6ae4backed No | 1c | 11,181$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…3ae4backed No | 1c | 10,598$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 41c | 10,587$4,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,241.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 45c | 10,178$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,586.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…8c3dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 9,901$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,265.77 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 54c | 9,750$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,221.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 55c | 9,629$5,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,266.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…bc3cbacked Yes | 36c | 9,152$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,863.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +178.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…8a2abacked No | 31c | 8,860$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…72a5backed No | 26c | 8,773$2,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc532…e71dbacked Yes | 40c | 7,428$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 56c | 7,415$4,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,173.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed No | 0c | 7,284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 32c | 6,490$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…254ebacked No | 67c | 6,174$4,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 35c | 6,132$2,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 5,999$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,505.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 70c | 5,988$4,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 64c | 5,869$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 60c | 5,499$3,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…5324backed No | 68c | 5,394$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,681.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed No | 51c | 5,352$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 36c | 5,075$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 50c | 5,008$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 71c | 4,917$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…9794backed Yes | 43c | 4,880$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 33c | 4,614$1,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 66c | 4,613$3,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 1c | 4,604$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…2b23backed Yes | 43c | 4,427$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,506.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…ae29backed Yes | 34c | 4,306$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 40c | 4,273$1,703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,569.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 75c | 4,056$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,024.11 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 50c | 4,038$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8e…3edfbacked Yes | 43c | 4,014$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…38e5backed No | 53c | 3,929$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed No | 18c | 3,910$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 39c | 3,910$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.83 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 61c | 3,902$2,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 31c | 3,727$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,706$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.8 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 40c | 3,640$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 62c | 3,501$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 61c | 3,449$2,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…cabbbacked No | 27c | 3,386$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 71c | 3,380$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 63c | 3,366$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…aaaebacked No | 80c | 3,353$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,681.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…f6eebacked No | 66c | 3,303$2,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda02…a35cbacked Yes | 48c | 3,181$1,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 67c | 3,150$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…39e3backed Yes | 41c | 3,028$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 46c | 2,981$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.96 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…03b5backed No | 67c | 2,936$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,966.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked No | 57c | 2,889$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bc…b865backed No | 1c | 2,786$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…5dccbacked No | 54c | 2,783$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 25c | 2,740$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,711$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 27c | 2,680$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,668$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 17cpaid | +306%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 13c | 2,500$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked No | 67c | 2,500$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 60c | 2,450$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 44c | 2,450$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 40c | 2,438$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 60c | 2,414$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 52c | 2,395$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 54c | 2,392$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 2,322$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes | 61c | 2,240$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…983ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,231$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +181.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,226$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +340.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…1f6fbacked No | 8c | 2,196$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c7…4e5bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,142$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 26c | 2,140$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 62c | 2,111$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 63c | 2,043$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…2945backed Yes | 59c | 2,023$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 39c | 2,000$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.26 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 73c | 1,984$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 53c | 1,958$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 58c | 1,925$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…6158backed Yes | 41c | 1,912$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.