TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa72a…93fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Alejandro Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$280
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolobacked Juan Manuel Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$279Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$219.19
Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.37
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauffbacked Coco Gauff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$2,117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$1,363.17
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanovbacked Casper Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,900Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$1,100
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Thiago Agustin Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,012Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,012
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreevabacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Jelena Ostapenkobacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,590Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$1,410
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10,027Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$4,972.3
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Andrea Pellegrinobacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$3,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,400
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landalucebacked Mattia Bellucci · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,197.83
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskovabacked Karolina Pliskova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$1,056
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmanebacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,326Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$1,073.98
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mariano Navonebacked Felix Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,076Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,076.32
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Carlos Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$744Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$743.5
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,823Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$1,005.96
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,036Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,035.99
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$843.11
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkaczbacked Valentin Vacherot · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+88.5%+$1,032.98
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Valentin Vacherotbacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$643.13
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Grigor Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$539.7
All 21 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.9
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,726Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+61.1%+$2,274.74
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$7,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$2,700.05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,050
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,804.98
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,985Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$1,015
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,941Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,940.52
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,250Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,749.99
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,666Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$2,153.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,258Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+76.9%+$3,273.7
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$7,699.94
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+34.1%+$229.8
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$791Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+28.9%+$228.6
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10,316Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+36.9%+$3,803.94
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+165.3%+$373.8
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$8,071Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$5,380.95
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$5,475Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+47%+$2,574.59
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,440Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$559.99
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by at least 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$791Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+95.5%+$755.59
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$713.37
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.23
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$9,770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$3,229.96
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,950Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$2,049.99
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,831Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,830.95
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,821Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,820.9
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,684Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+51.7%+$1,903.03
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,001.3
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$891Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$891
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+304.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$604Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+304.2%+$1,838.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$231.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$255.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$3,573Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$3,573.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,644Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,643.81
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.