Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,502,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,808,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,502,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 8,139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 42c | 1,027,611$426,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600,745.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…f553backed No | 55c | 439,154$240,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240,063 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…218dbacked Yes | 37c | 430,881$160,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269,962.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 61c | 429,919$263,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263,457.57 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed No | 57c | 391,236$222,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222,339.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3f…c282backed Yes | 38c | 356,746$134,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222,563.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…ba2abacked No | 59c | 321,997$190,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190,730.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 39c | 311,219$121,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189,461.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 34c | 305,364$103,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202,201.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…18debacked No | 60c | 275,036$163,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163,770.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 56c | 269,326$149,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149,682.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 46c | 256,219$118,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137,446.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 31c | 252,643$79,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173,567.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +304.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 53c | 229,830$122,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122,437.77 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 65c | 209,299$135,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,661.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed Yes | 43c | 206,359$88,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,333.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +433.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336c…df32backed No | 58c | 200,001$115,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115,524 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 35c | 188,982$66,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122,477.84 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed No | 57c | 182,250$103,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,364 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 46c | 178,895$81,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,481.48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4cf1backed No | 57c | 171,207$96,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96,831.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed Yes | 48c | 170,717$81,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,378.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 39c | 150,278$58,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,582.52 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 67c | 150,000$100,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,499.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b87…d95cbacked Yes | 43c | 146,000$63,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,659.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 29c | 145,498$41,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,818.71 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ad…f71abacked No | 45c | 139,609$63,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,288.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 129,764$55,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,493.44 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82da…da33backed Yes | 37c | 128,229$47,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,055.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +499.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 35c | 122,303$43,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79,188.87 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 45c | 106,871$47,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,263.91 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…8643backed No | 52c | 105,114$55,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 56c | 101,174$56,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,761.26 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 43c | 99,777$43,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,593.12 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…4863backed No | 72c | 90,305$65,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,034.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…683ebacked No | 1c | 90,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f96…2636backed No | 58c | 89,491$51,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,638.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…d13cbacked No | 57c | 89,304$50,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,712.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 47c | 83,832$39,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,380.68 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 58c | 83,067$48,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,570.82 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 54c | 82,606$44,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,495.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 52c | 81,000$42,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,526 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 44c | 78,817$34,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,235.54 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 42c | 77,858$32,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,462.61 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked No | 55c | 75,029$40,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,928.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 45c | 74,000$33,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,000.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 44c | 73,973$32,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,475.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa24a…9211backed Yes | 50c | 70,329$35,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,104.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…bcb6backed No | 72c | 69,621$50,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…96cbbacked No | 1c | 66,320$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 44c | 66,310$29,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,999.76 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…7774backed Yes | 45c | 64,176$28,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,401.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 49c | 61,477$30,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,451.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…3c87backed Yes | 47c | 59,470$27,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,485.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 49c | 58,363$28,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,729.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 32c | 57,905$18,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,536.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 20cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca3…590fbacked No | 64c | 56,844$36,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,267.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 49c | 55,568$27,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,496.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 46c | 55,473$25,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,791.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked Yes | 54c | 54,834$29,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,085.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4621…efccbacked Yes | 51c | 53,865$27,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,149.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf75b…672ebacked Yes | 53c | 53,676$28,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,090.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 27c | 52,001$13,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,101.08 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Yes | 43c | 51,846$22,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,509.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +80%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 50c | 50,315$25,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,314.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…bd8bbacked Yes | 37c | 50,130$18,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,582.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +333.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf525…008ebacked No | 1c | 50,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…f26abacked Yes | 47c | 50,000$23,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,619.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa8…3695backed No | 1c | 49,600$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…adb6backed No | 74c | 49,377$36,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,538.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571a…3315backed Yes | 39c | 48,815$18,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,831.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Yes | 49c | 48,497$23,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,572.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 36c | 48,339$17,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,980.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 45c | 47,941$21,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,367.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed No | 58c | 47,243$27,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,610.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 29c | 46,218$13,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,790.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed Yes | 31c | 45,974$14,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,607.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…0534backed Yes | 33c | 45,450$15,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,312.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 41c | 45,210$18,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,677.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 65c | 44,367$28,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,869.53 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97af…9bc6backed Yes | 33c | 43,216$14,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,048.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 49c | 42,500$20,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,840 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…5034backed No | 60c | 41,612$24,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,967 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 52c | 41,603$21,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,840.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f11…4eacbacked No | 63c | 40,887$25,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,872.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed Yes | 36c | 40,187$14,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,672.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 29c | 39,701$11,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,015.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 55c | 39,407$21,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,842.5 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed Yes | 57c | 38,639$22,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,492.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4489…2452backed Yes | 38c | 37,903$14,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,616.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…9381backed Yes | 38c | 37,727$14,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,389.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 65c | 37,393$24,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,206.83 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…8de6backed No | 1c | 37,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…08bcbacked Yes | 43c | 36,882$15,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,013.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 48c | 36,717$17,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,261.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…8db9backed No | 1c | 35,700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef5…1c5abacked Yes | 46c | 35,430$16,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,959.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 57c | 33,508$18,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,521.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 27c | 33,416$9,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,262.18 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +489.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 47c | 33,354$15,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,751 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.