TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97af…9bc6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
144
Categories scored
24
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NHL, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 59 out of 100; worst Serie A at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4652.2%24 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,693Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,693.27
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+105%+$221.5
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.9%+$183.6
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$948Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$948.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,887Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$2,072.7
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,320
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$242.06
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$78.66
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$544Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$205.8
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$459Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+226.8%+$1,041
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+299.6%+$1,141.12
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$889Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$510.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$331.78
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$926.29
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.6
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$438.65
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,850Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$650
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$799.85
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$184
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,562Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$752.85
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+129.4%+$380.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$713Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$712.54
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$363.86
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$6,596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,596.11
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28,101Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+366.7%+$103,037.4
France vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13,353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,352.95
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12,584Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,583.69
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$202.2
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$3,848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,847.96
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$70
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.98
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$61.36
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.25
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$28.21
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$175.2
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 24 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.61
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,682Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+26.5%+$445.28
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,222Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+57.5%+$702.2
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$3,066Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$3,066.03
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+71.8%+$72.53
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$257.77
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$4,944Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+38.5%+$1,903.85
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,029Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+56.3%+$578.93
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$9,921Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+65.8%+$6,528.98
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,267Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,267.28
OpenSea airdrop before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Rabby airdrop in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+26.6%+$14.7
Base airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10.39
zkSync airdrop by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,515Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2024, EDT+39.1%+$591.88
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$209.28
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$413.99
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$9,219Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$2,809.42
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$591.62
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$152.59
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$168.31
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.2
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$239.02
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+92.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$37.8
Flames vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,649Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+81.8%+$1,349
Utah vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+156.4%+$425.17
Golden Knights vs. Oilersbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
All 5 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+51.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$5,905Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$5,904.64
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$8,467Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+112.6%+$9,537.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,063.15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,328Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,328.09
Heat vs. Magicbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,678Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$4,678.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win the Serie A?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14,168Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+205%+$29,048.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+127.3%+$28.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$103.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,776Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$1,324.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-24 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2024, EDT+33.3%+$366.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$188.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.