TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$127,835
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$123,725

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,835 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110f…8f39backed No63c11,861$7,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,347.034472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes37c10,356$3,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,838.911513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x79ac…4377backed No75c8,826$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,167.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed No71c6,691$4,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed No70c6,009$4,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,818.583333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5122…8dc7backed No66c4,615$3,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,550.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+63.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No72c4,352$3,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.25100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked No64c4,232$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.043378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0d79…1004backed Yes25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-80.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f2…1a94backed No67c2,969$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.511457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaee9…4767backed Yes27c2,707$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1199…d5f9backed Yes20c2,699$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.4250%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1ed…e774backed No71c2,534$1,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b2…3aa1backed Yes1c2,233$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb550…619fbacked No79c1,922$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…d40bbacked Yes28c1,759$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c1,567$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.685549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c94…2c0dbacked Yes35c1,546$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.931421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78b1…bfb0backed Yes33c1,508$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c0…b5e6backed Yes17c1,465$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No74c1,238$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.451656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x987e…5239backed Yes37c1,208$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes38c1,156$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.472941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes18c1,122$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.147125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes34c1,112$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.262416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes1c1,043$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0a…208dbacked Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No62c999.99$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe903…6adbbacked Yes37c957.14$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xace2…8ab9backed Yes18c929.97$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked No67c885.09$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5f…e63cbacked No64c834.72$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.274100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9a8…3592backed Yes24c833.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…8be8backed Yes21c820.86$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes23c805.59$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.544148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes24c799.98$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1913534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No74c799.97$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9947328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb99…f5a1backed Yes24c787.09$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes17c781.29$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.822516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes32c753.55$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.58100%0 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xecca…1cb1backed Yes27c738.26$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e3…2c54backed Yes41c733.12$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda8c…8bdcbacked Yes28c721.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83e1…6a54backed Yes35c714.29$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes33c699.99$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked No74c606$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Yes25c600$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e4e…411abacked No76c599.99$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1443100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9465…0ffabacked Yes34c583.17$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x706d…a527backed Yes35c571.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a6…9837backed Yes53c548.85$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-38.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c76…f995backed Yes24c530$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No65c530$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.91735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff6…d1fdbacked Yes20c528.55$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26b2…4486backed Yes23c518.41$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes22c505.97$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251060%6 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-75.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1604…ff0ebacked No79c499.99$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes21c499.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1055518.2%10 W · 45 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1547…d066backed No77c499.98$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No76c499.97$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9920049.5%99 W · 101 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5761…0c28backed No60c499.85$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.66944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Yes35c497.6$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef3…93a1backed Yes34c464.38$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41da…0b58backed Yes22c451.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5980%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe105…2d89backed Yes21c450$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd059…2a48backed Yes23c431.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96f0…3a97backed Yes33c421.19$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No77c418.49$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.9313650%68 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7508…1886backed Yes37c410$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0e…c45bbacked No77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f6…dd39backed No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc038…568ebacked Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Yes28c358.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8803…eb1dbacked No63c338.01$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.181275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c1…30e5backed Yes16c330$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…a504backed Yes29c329.75$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d7…bdebbacked Yes27c328.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa598…894cbacked Yes26c325.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes32c313.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed No47c305$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…8e60backed Yes29c303.84$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf494…10a8backed Yes34c295.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…8b4bbacked Yes33c291.8$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddaa…9e92backed Yes20c290$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4e1…5baebacked Yes28c288.21$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3315…20b4backed Yes35c285.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1e…37cabacked Yes11c281.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88bc…8eb7backed Yes35c278.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b7…3e1cbacked No73c273.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…4f06backed No72c270.52$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8421…85e4backed Yes20c266.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d71…0746backed Yes30c264.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed No70c259.52$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes18c256.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2413740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c251.85$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1867232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes20c251.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.