Movies · resolved market
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1f24bd5ebb9dfd808d1dca77f304f39ff7b8d63c0a60d372df2472838baa5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 63c | 11,861$7,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,347.03 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 37c | 10,356$3,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,838.91 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…4377backed No | 75c | 8,826$6,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,167.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed No | 71c | 6,691$4,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 70c | 6,009$4,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,818.58 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5122…8dc7backed No | 66c | 4,615$3,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 72c | 4,352$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked No | 64c | 4,232$2,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.04 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0d79…1004backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…1a94backed No | 67c | 2,969$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee9…4767backed Yes | 27c | 2,707$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…d5f9backed Yes | 20c | 2,699$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…e774backed No | 71c | 2,534$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…3aa1backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…619fbacked No | 79c | 1,922$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…d40bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,759$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 76c | 1,567$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.68 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…2c0dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,546$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…bfb0backed Yes | 33c | 1,508$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…b5e6backed Yes | 17c | 1,465$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 74c | 1,238$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…5239backed Yes | 37c | 1,208$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 38c | 1,156$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.47 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 18c | 1,122$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 34c | 1,112$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 1c | 1,043$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…208dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 62c | 999.99$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…6adbbacked Yes | 37c | 957.14$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 18c | 929.97$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked No | 67c | 885.09$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked No | 64c | 834.72$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…8be8backed Yes | 21c | 820.86$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 23c | 805.59$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 24c | 799.98$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 799.97$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…f5a1backed Yes | 24c | 787.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 17c | 781.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 32c | 753.55$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…1cb1backed Yes | 27c | 738.26$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e3…2c54backed Yes | 41c | 733.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8c…8bdcbacked Yes | 28c | 721.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83e1…6a54backed Yes | 35c | 714.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 33c | 699.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked No | 74c | 606$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4e…411abacked No | 76c | 599.99$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9465…0ffabacked Yes | 34c | 583.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706d…a527backed Yes | 35c | 571.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…9837backed Yes | 53c | 548.85$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f995backed Yes | 24c | 530$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 65c | 530$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked Yes | 20c | 528.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 23c | 518.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…63b2backed Yes | 22c | 505.97$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 21c | 499.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 77c | 499.98$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 76c | 499.97$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5761…0c28backed No | 60c | 499.85$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…427dbacked Yes | 35c | 497.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…93a1backed Yes | 34c | 464.38$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 22c | 451.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…2d89backed Yes | 21c | 450$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd059…2a48backed Yes | 23c | 431.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96f0…3a97backed Yes | 33c | 421.19$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 77c | 418.49$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.93 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7508…1886backed Yes | 37c | 410$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…c45bbacked No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…dd39backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc038…568ebacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Yes | 28c | 358.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 63c | 338.01$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…30e5backed Yes | 16c | 330$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…a504backed Yes | 29c | 329.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d7…bdebbacked Yes | 27c | 328.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…894cbacked Yes | 26c | 325.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes | 32c | 313.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 47c | 305$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…8e60backed Yes | 29c | 303.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…10a8backed Yes | 34c | 295.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…8b4bbacked Yes | 33c | 291.8$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…9e92backed Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e1…5baebacked Yes | 28c | 288.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3315…20b4backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee1e…37cabacked Yes | 11c | 281.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…8eb7backed Yes | 35c | 278.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b7…3e1cbacked No | 73c | 273.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 72c | 270.52$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…85e4backed Yes | 20c | 266.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…0746backed Yes | 30c | 264.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed No | 70c | 259.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 18c | 256.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 251.85$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…c6bebacked Yes | 20c | 251.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.