Movies · resolved market
Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4579f56ca9938e319bf4b47d6fb713f1bb1297d65ef1bb7b5d9e85f296b8f0c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes | 9c | 2,191$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Yes | 11c | 2,177$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…c9a5backed Yes | 11c | 1,225$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…56e2backed Yes | 10c | 1,030$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…a848backed Yes | 14c | 928.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2f36backed Yes | 11c | 922.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…d882backed Yes | 11c | 892.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 868.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 9c | 816.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 8c | 689.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…ca8dbacked Yes | 9c | 566.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 7c | 480.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…531cbacked Yes | 9c | 478.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…b1f1backed Yes | 9c | 464.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 10c | 432.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…a05dbacked Yes | 8c | 426.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes | 10c | 405.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 6c | 393.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…b6c9backed Yes | 8c | 388.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa677…8430backed Yes | 10c | 352.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 351.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 340.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…4768backed Yes | 16c | 313.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…6929backed Yes | 10c | 300.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 7c | 280.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Yes | 11c | 266.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…5531backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 7c | 249.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…d29bbacked Yes | 10c | 248.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 9c | 247.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…1cb2backed Yes | 8c | 245.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4e…5b64backed Yes | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 233.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668c…d3efbacked Yes | 9c | 220.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 5c | 219$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…b468backed Yes | 9c | 214.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…2d72backed Yes | 14c | 213.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 14c | 212.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc53…b016backed Yes | 10c | 208.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 10c | 205.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…28f5backed Yes | 10c | 205.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcecc…6ad6backed Yes | 10c | 200.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b51…b4e2backed Yes | 10c | 200.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…044cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…a5b0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…c3c5backed Yes | 10c | 195.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…978abacked Yes | 9c | 195$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 7c | 190.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7508…1886backed Yes | 10c | 188$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…5e15backed Yes | 9c | 187.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…6a38backed Yes | 10c | 182.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…4057backed Yes | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…723cbacked Yes | 12c | 165.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…a537backed Yes | 8c | 165.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 10c | 162.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…3bfabacked Yes | 10c | 152.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…9ce1backed Yes | 8c | 140.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 140.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…9ff0backed Yes | 14c | 139.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…5dadbacked Yes | 12c | 116.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…9206backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…454abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…7e15backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…8565backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…656ebacked Yes | 29c | 69.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…d263backed Yes | 19c | 61.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked No | 70c | 50.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.