Movies · resolved market
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12972925299e385c5b0a12652e25cb6ee057a73d4d0bde9274d3aabf6e7de95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…6b54backed Yes | 16c | 11,581$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…5154backed Yes | 23c | 6,961$1,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,608.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…c114backed Yes | 13c | 5,421$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…b16cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 14c | 5,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d80…c953backed Yes | 15c | 4,057$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 20c | 3,973$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 17c | 3,913$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 80c | 3,417$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.41 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 15c | 3,350$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes | 15c | 3,242$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…215fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,033$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed Yes | 16c | 2,504$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…e89abacked Yes | 20c | 2,504$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a8…3592backed Yes | 17c | 2,368$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 14c | 2,340$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 17c | 2,293$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…78dfbacked Yes | 22c | 2,292$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 76c | 2,260$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,789$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…8046backed Yes | 15c | 1,774$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,765$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…4f69backed Yes | 15c | 1,724$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…a9debacked Yes | 12c | 1,681$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…c93abacked Yes | 14c | 1,479$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,388$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 17c | 1,261$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…8d93backed Yes | 18c | 1,107$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 25c | 1,027$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,004$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ead…3183backed Yes | 16c | 993.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35eb…69ffbacked Yes | 14c | 973.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 960.27$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 939.41$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 16c | 927.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 24c | 869.24$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.69 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fa…950fbacked Yes | 13c | 798.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…ee13backed Yes | 19c | 795.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 18c | 769.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed Yes | 17c | 760.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed No | 80c | 737.31$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…b515backed Yes | 16c | 735.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…8173backed Yes | 35c | 721.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 16c | 701.73$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…9030backed Yes | 14c | 681.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…a977backed Yes | 18c | 665.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…02adbacked Yes | 15c | 649.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…269fbacked Yes | 16c | 627.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10df…04a9backed Yes | 16c | 608.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1f…6823backed Yes | 17c | 597.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb724…a3cabacked Yes | 17c | 569$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 7c | 536.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa549…c7ecbacked Yes | 14c | 536.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Yes | 19c | 509.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…2a64backed Yes | 22c | 506.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038a…1909backed Yes | 12c | 503.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…a7f1backed Yes | 20c | 503$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 15c | 499.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 72c | 499.71$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…0403backed Yes | 12c | 492.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…2728backed Yes | 19c | 474.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…bee3backed Yes | 9c | 473.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 15c | 460.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…75b1backed Yes | 22c | 455.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Yes | 16c | 454.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…821fbacked Yes | 12c | 440.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 12c | 438.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…7b61backed Yes | 23c | 437$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…18dcbacked Yes | 18c | 431.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 9c | 428.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…43a0backed Yes | 11c | 427.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 416.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…c3ffbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…6ad4backed Yes | 16c | 379.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ef…f032backed Yes | 14c | 369.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 14c | 358.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 34c | 355.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 23c | 346.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…d4c9backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e73…b728backed Yes | 30c | 332$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…8f17backed Yes | 17c | 329.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 13c | 319.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…3071backed Yes | 8c | 319$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 317.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes | 17c | 316.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…b76cbacked Yes | 18c | 316.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336d…7c73backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.