TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$255,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$276,776

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 325 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb902…6b54backed Yes16c11,581$1,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bfe…5154backed Yes23c6,961$1,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,608.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…c114backed Yes13c5,421$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ab9…b16cbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes14c5,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70070%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d80…c953backed Yes15c4,057$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes20c3,973$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebf…2459backed Yes17c3,913$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No80c3,417$2,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.412955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes15c3,350$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes15c3,242$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f56…215fbacked Yes17c3,033$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…7e39backed Yes16c2,504$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes20c2,504$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6837…15e1backed Yes10c2,500$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25811637.1%43 W · 73 L+14.1wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb9a8…3592backed Yes17c2,368$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes14c2,340$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.321921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes17c2,293$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c09…78dfbacked Yes22c2,292$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No76c2,260$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a36…3aabbacked Yes14c1,789$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes15c1,774$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes16c1,765$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.46333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x347a…4f69backed Yes15c1,724$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039d…a9debacked Yes12c1,681$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa262…c93abacked Yes14c1,479$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes18c1,388$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x53b4…0139backed Yes8c1,300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes17c1,261$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.13414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2891…8d93backed Yes18c1,107$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1091…a259backed Yes25c1,027$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc5…08dbbacked Yes11c1,004$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a7…3763backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked Yes9c1,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ead…3183backed Yes16c993.75$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x35eb…69ffbacked Yes14c973.27$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2470%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c960.27$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.414015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c939.41$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2848414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Yes16c927.51$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes24c869.24$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.693231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fa…950fbacked Yes13c798.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cd…ee13backed Yes19c795.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ea…5595backed Yes18c769.01$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.92812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes17c760.18$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.672268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x027a…ea13backed No80c737.31$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.06580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d84…b515backed Yes16c735.16$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d34…8173backed Yes35c721.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes16c701.73$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3513740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe180…889bbacked Yes16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…9030backed Yes14c681.76$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…a977backed Yes18c665.26$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x983a…02adbacked Yes15c649.05$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Yes16c627.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10df…04a9backed Yes16c608.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.243125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1f…6823backed Yes17c597.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb724…a3cabacked Yes17c569$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes7c536.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa549…c7ecbacked Yes14c536.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc60d…8887backed Yes19c509.69$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…2a64backed Yes22c506.89$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038a…1909backed Yes12c503.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x369a…a7f1backed Yes20c503$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked No72c499.71$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.224100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9fb…0403backed Yes12c492.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f7…2728backed Yes19c474.54$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe229…bee3backed Yes9c473.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes15c460.65$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.674544.4%20 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cc…75b1backed Yes22c455.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fe5…8449backed Yes16c454.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55a…821fbacked Yes12c440.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafbc…e185backed Yes12c438.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.092015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423d…7b61backed Yes23c437$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5084…18dcbacked Yes18c431.11$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Yes9c428.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00e8…43a0backed Yes11c427.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes13c416.32$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.335831%18 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…d3bebacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83c5…c3ffbacked No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe132…6ad4backed Yes16c379.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ef…f032backed Yes14c369.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes14c360$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e0…7c68backed Yes14c358.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…822abacked Yes34c355.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes23c346.19$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8470%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd9…d4c9backed Yes12c333.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e73…b728backed Yes30c332$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c0b…8f17backed Yes17c329.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7881…5c15backed Yes13c319.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82c5…3071backed Yes8c319$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes13c317.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3311129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes17c316.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9670%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f5d…b76cbacked Yes18c316.67$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5760%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x336d…7c73backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.