Movies · resolved market
Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3870622f955e58bb7267a0c3c001206fab4452df0557269883382c93dfae985
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b42…5d57backed Yes | 4c | 4,142$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 6c | 3,943$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2f36backed Yes | 4c | 2,514$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…d882backed Yes | 5c | 1,943$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…53f2backed Yes | 4c | 1,800$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,504$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…88aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 8c | 1,119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…0a49backed Yes | 4c | 1,087$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 887.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 7c | 839$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…1a1ebacked Yes | 12c | 783.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061c…ce82backed Yes | 20c | 713.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…cdc7backed Yes | 14c | 680.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ad…097abacked Yes | 4c | 641.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e5…a0afbacked Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…0257backed Yes | 4c | 530.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 525.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Yes | 4c | 512.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed Yes | 2c | 511.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2e…c9dfbacked Yes | 4c | 502.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 498.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8246…4096backed Yes | 4c | 476.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 459$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 445.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…ff66backed Yes | 5c | 401.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 358.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…2d06backed Yes | 4c | 345.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc9…e7f6backed Yes | 15c | 343.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 6c | 315.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 305.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 4c | 304.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd641…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 273.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed Yes | 6c | 254.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 215.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…2342backed Yes | 7c | 212.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd318…7d57backed Yes | 5c | 193$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99f…af99backed Yes | 5c | 190$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Yes | 12c | 163.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 16c | 160.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4f…e58cbacked Yes | 9c | 147.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 8c | 128.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…e00dbacked Yes | 12c | 124.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed94…c7a8backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.