Movies · resolved market
Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c0eec85f86bef99da63a5cd98121c375ccb357e887f202243b36a3909802399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 4c | 4,483$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…11d5backed Yes | 2c | 3,260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed Yes | 0c | 2,459$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 3c | 1,484$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 3c | 1,350$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c52…9e1bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,023$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed Yes | 6c | 1,016$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…d882backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 8c | 993.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 992.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…3ce6backed Yes | 5c | 813.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…6b67backed Yes | 7c | 788.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d7…65f0backed Yes | 5c | 766$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…2342backed Yes | 7c | 716.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 683.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 5c | 593.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 590.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380f…a69abacked Yes | 4c | 556.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…1035backed Yes | 16c | 526.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…68cfbacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked Yes | 18c | 493.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…28ffbacked Yes | 11c | 455.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…3f32backed Yes | 6c | 450$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 5c | 401.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…bfb0backed Yes | 5c | 383.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…412cbacked Yes | 3c | 382.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…4ababacked Yes | 11c | 382$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8246…4096backed Yes | 5c | 371.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…0f5ebacked Yes | 11c | 357.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac3…55c8backed Yes | 6c | 354.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…723cbacked Yes | 7c | 354.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 8c | 329$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…a135backed Yes | 18c | 325.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 325$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 303.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8408…19dfbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…6da0backed Yes | 8c | 288.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 268.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…f137backed Yes | 8c | 261.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 259.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 5c | 252.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2e…c9dfbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf65…b3d9backed Yes | 5c | 248.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 14c | 244.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes | 6c | 234.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 7c | 220$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…0c42backed Yes | 23c | 213.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…9f8abacked Yes | 7c | 210.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd03d…ec9abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe656…5e07backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…9711backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 10c | 181.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…143cbacked Yes | 8c | 163.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…e00dbacked Yes | 10c | 153.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bb…9462backed Yes | 10c | 151.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…e9c8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…a337backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…de68backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 14c | 104.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…8449backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…4357backed Yes | 29c | 48.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd917…b0c6backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.