Movies · resolved market
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd7416a511c8db68e0293207d30f90693d80a62497afeb02a42c7a0f9fdc41a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 75c | 18,079$13,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.73 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 77c | 7,997$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…3a69backed Yes | 26c | 4,080$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Yes | 42c | 4,016$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 27c | 3,292$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 78c | 3,136$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes | 17c | 2,923$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…b093backed Yes | 24c | 2,880$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 2,545$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.97 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked No | 61c | 2,234$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.8 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 11c | 2,200$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked No | 70c | 2,019$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.59 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…93a1backed Yes | 17c | 1,946$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed No | 79c | 1,899$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 30c | 1,830$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 1,650$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.94 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 33c | 1,626$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.24 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…3249backed Yes | 16c | 1,574$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc5…f5fbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,378$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 3c | 1,372$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 1,362$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.12 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…ff81backed Yes | 15c | 1,341$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2891…8d93backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…b468backed Yes | 32c | 1,138$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…839abacked Yes | 15c | 1,133$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 3c | 888.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Yes | 29c | 870.02$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…344dbacked Yes | 11c | 858$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7042…9371backed Yes | 21c | 848.91$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe212…c93ebacked Yes | 18c | 812.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…056fbacked Yes | 32c | 773.08$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 25c | 765.45$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.48 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb9…74bfbacked No | 69c | 725$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…aaccbacked Yes | 12c | 712.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…c31fbacked Yes | 28c | 703.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0a…69d3backed Yes | 30c | 670$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 3c | 660.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…4bb1backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…4ababacked Yes | 25c | 612$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc682…17bbbacked Yes | 16c | 602.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…b2d2backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 11c | 582$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…6cf5backed Yes | 16c | 579.68$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 25c | 570$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 527.9$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 16c | 524.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3c…a02abacked Yes | 11c | 521.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…d337backed Yes | 19c | 521.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…9bf9backed Yes | 19c | 521.27$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Yes | 12c | 518.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…1cb2backed Yes | 24c | 507.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…4f92backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 74c | 494.04$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 76c | 493.05$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Yes | 14c | 484.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…f137backed Yes | 19c | 480$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…0c42backed Yes | 30c | 474.5$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…5bc5backed Yes | 11c | 463.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6c…6bcebacked Yes | 26c | 453.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 80c | 451.19$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed Yes | 14c | 450.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes | 21c | 448.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 439.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…d29bbacked Yes | 11c | 436.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8ab9backed Yes | 15c | 420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2f…f4bbbacked Yes | 12c | 420$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Yes | 18c | 419$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…d8d8backed Yes | 23c | 417.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 78c | 417.11$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 19c | 415.81$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.81 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4c…cf54backed Yes | 13c | 408.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 66 | 6.1%4 W · 62 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…0214backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 75c | 399.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 12c | 399.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 76c | 399.95$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf995…307abacked No | 76c | 396.85$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…7aa5backed Yes | 17c | 385.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 30c | 383.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…5c47backed Yes | 36c | 380$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe180…889bbacked Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 70c | 357$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…6929backed Yes | 16c | 347.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e26…7650backed Yes | 30c | 334.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…a390backed Yes | 30c | 333.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…658bbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cc…75b1backed Yes | 30c | 328$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa549…c7ecbacked Yes | 16c | 318.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed No | 79c | 311.76$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…097bbacked Yes | 15c | 310.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 307.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.