TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$668,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$629,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $668,892 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 969 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a14…d748backed Yes28c46,405$13,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,182.011513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-81.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7744…999ebacked No75c41,716$31,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,402.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad7…c55bbacked No75c40,068$30,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,871.184100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+67.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No74c26,939$20,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,930.025100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x110f…8f39backed No79c25,603$20,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,336.194472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x78c6…4710backed Yes16c20,000$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes31c16,427$5,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,132.83683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes29c15,004$4,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,289.61922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d80…9552backed Yes21c13,000$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes1c10,267$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77ad…ba8abacked Yes17c9,316$1,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4589…b26bbacked Yes0c6,365$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes19c6,055$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.926222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No80c5,200$4,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.992751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes28c5,129$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,425.731020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-71.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed Yes13c5,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed No73c4,782$3,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c25…7e39backed Yes18c4,507$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafbc…e185backed No77c4,350$3,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.992015%3 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d1b…f055backed Yes22c4,111$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c4,097$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.0514015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes17c4,005$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes32c3,891$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes15c3,887$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.467125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4406…63ffbacked Yes14c3,725$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7316…4686backed Yes17c3,608$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd2…7a81backed Yes15c3,203$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb98…3249backed Yes17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5554…9e9fbacked Yes24c3,000$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked No76c2,961$2,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.143378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes17c2,947$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.9340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked Yes12c2,755$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2fb1…fb84backed No74c2,723$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.172100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+62.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes25c2,635$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.592015%3 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-71.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x09ba…e89abacked Yes27c2,590$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes23c2,581$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.1380%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c2,500$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.995549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No79c2,478$1,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.572560%15 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes21c2,464$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa374…9709backed Yes21c2,444$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf460…c31fbacked Yes30c2,423$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4216…24d6backed Yes19c2,368$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes17c2,341$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ff7…ac59backed Yes21c2,316$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…3210backed Yes15c2,310$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.29757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc926…8058backed No74c2,299$1,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes22c2,293$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebf…2459backed Yes25c2,266$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7839…0a49backed Yes21c2,227$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes14c2,153$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.12040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes4c2,151$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6540…d892backed Yes16c2,147$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Yes35c2,142$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes24c2,121$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4279…344dbacked Yes15c1,990$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c4…1bc0backed Yes26c1,929$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7a…4ababacked Yes21c1,886$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes30c1,805$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No71c1,753$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes26c1,750$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.42010%2 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes26c1,700$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.311435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf45…c508backed Yes14c1,625$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1594…f6d4backed Yes16c1,606$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dcb…53b4backed Yes14c1,592$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfab4…2f28backed Yes16c1,563$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x303c…1cf8backed No76c1,545$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes29c1,510$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.054427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x850c…498cbacked Yes17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f56…215fbacked Yes23c1,487$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes14c1,323$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.74812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-80.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd3…e601backed Yes17c1,287$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes19c1,282$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.823414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c1,270$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c76…f995backed Yes24c1,260$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes15c1,257$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3ee…7dd4backed Yes15c1,174$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes12c1,173$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba2f…c255backed Yes17c1,157$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d0…c858backed Yes17c1,149$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes23c1,123$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.053119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed47…5d79backed Yes19c1,121$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21240%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a61…0f0cbacked Yes20c1,118$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd416…d9e2backed No76c1,109$841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.975044%22 W · 28 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Yes28c1,091$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes20c1,066$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe147…81aabacked Yes19c1,061$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4258…d263backed Yes22c1,056$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.61520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc31…bf65backed Yes20c1,030$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x636f…819fbacked Yes22c1,029$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.1730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0b…8f17backed Yes20c1,007$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes17c1,003$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b34…c545backed Yes20c1,003$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes24c1,000$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.481060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe659…4f92backed Yes14c1,000$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…eeb2backed No79c999.97$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.995100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x594c…3399backed Yes22c997$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.