Movies · resolved market
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db58beab7a43ca5fee0357653f2ccab183bdbe14d0442b105871571befd0990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $668,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $629,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $668,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 969 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 28c | 46,405$13,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,182.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 75c | 41,716$31,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,402.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked No | 75c | 40,068$30,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,871.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 74c | 26,939$20,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,930.02 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 79c | 25,603$20,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,336.19 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x78c6…4710backed Yes | 16c | 20,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 31c | 16,427$5,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,132.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 29c | 15,004$4,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,289.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d80…9552backed Yes | 21c | 13,000$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…e7d0backed Yes | 1c | 10,267$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Yes | 17c | 9,316$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…b26bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,365$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 6,055$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.92 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 80c | 5,200$4,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 28c | 5,129$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 73c | 4,782$3,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…7e39backed Yes | 18c | 4,507$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…e185backed No | 77c | 4,350$3,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 22c | 4,111$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 4,097$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.05 | 140 | 15%21 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0f…8de9backed Yes | 17c | 4,005$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44d…ba3abacked Yes | 32c | 3,891$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 15c | 3,887$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.46 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…63ffbacked Yes | 14c | 3,725$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7316…4686backed Yes | 17c | 3,608$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…7a81backed Yes | 15c | 3,203$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…3249backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…9e9fbacked Yes | 24c | 3,000$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…8fedbacked No | 76c | 2,961$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.14 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 17c | 2,947$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…6edbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,755$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 74c | 2,723$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 25c | 2,635$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.59 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ba…e89abacked Yes | 27c | 2,590$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes | 23c | 2,581$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 76c | 2,500$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 79c | 2,478$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,464$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Yes | 21c | 2,444$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf460…c31fbacked Yes | 30c | 2,423$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…24d6backed Yes | 19c | 2,368$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 17c | 2,341$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…ac59backed Yes | 21c | 2,316$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…3210backed Yes | 15c | 2,310$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…8058backed No | 74c | 2,299$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 22c | 2,293$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 25c | 2,266$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…0a49backed Yes | 21c | 2,227$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,153$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.1 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…dda1backed Yes | 4c | 2,151$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…d892backed Yes | 16c | 2,147$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…dd9fbacked Yes | 35c | 2,142$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd3…d6b2backed Yes | 24c | 2,121$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…344dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,990$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…1bc0backed Yes | 26c | 1,929$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…4ababacked Yes | 21c | 1,886$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 30c | 1,805$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed No | 71c | 1,753$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 26c | 1,750$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.4 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 26c | 1,700$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Yes | 14c | 1,625$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…f6d4backed Yes | 16c | 1,606$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcb…53b4backed Yes | 14c | 1,592$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…2f28backed Yes | 16c | 1,563$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303c…1cf8backed No | 76c | 1,545$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 29c | 1,510$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.05 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…498cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…215fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,487$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 14c | 1,323$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…e601backed Yes | 17c | 1,287$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 19c | 1,282$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.82 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 1,270$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.95 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f995backed Yes | 24c | 1,260$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…da4abacked Yes | 15c | 1,257$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ee…7dd4backed Yes | 15c | 1,174$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,173$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…c255backed Yes | 17c | 1,157$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…c858backed Yes | 17c | 1,149$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 23c | 1,123$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.05 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…5d79backed Yes | 19c | 1,121$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…0f0cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,118$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed No | 76c | 1,109$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.97 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Yes | 28c | 1,091$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a3…8046backed Yes | 20c | 1,066$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…81aabacked Yes | 19c | 1,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4258…d263backed Yes | 22c | 1,056$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…bf65backed Yes | 20c | 1,030$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…819fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,029$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…8f17backed Yes | 20c | 1,007$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,003$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 20c | 1,003$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe659…4f92backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…eeb2backed No | 79c | 999.97$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594c…3399backed Yes | 22c | 997$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?this page
- Will Derek Turnbow die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?Yes won
- Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Holly Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Joyce Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Max Mayfield die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Scott Clarke die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
- Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.