TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,452
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,452 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf059…6f38backed Yes8c1,942$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.39633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes7c1,940$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.542040%8 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,584$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.221,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb98…3249backed Yes6c1,555$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf73c…d882backed Yes7c1,450$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes11c928$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.523231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66fa…950fbacked Yes8c900.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes9c886.91$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0114015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c862.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9917010%17 W · 153 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes8c803$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.044827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…8565backed Yes6c690.39$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ec…0dcfbacked Yes4c580$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes5c575.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.223013.3%4 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c76…f995backed Yes10c545.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b8…f90fbacked Yes13c540.45$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes6c521.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.031010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffb2…2744backed Yes13c505.59$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300a…f137backed Yes6c490$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.41010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-75.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c487.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c2…25cbbacked Yes7c461.44$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes7c433.57$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.151114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes16c432$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.122133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7856…43b2backed Yes5c424$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Yes5c410$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc31…bf65backed Yes6c400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes8c395.68$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2913740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes6c373.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5822030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a9c…0c42backed Yes14c350.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f56…215fbacked Yes10c338.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c335.91$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.04666.1%4 W · 62 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9020…2647backed Yes6c333.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46c…4468backed Yes4c332$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa482…e63cbacked Yes6c327.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c7…3f32backed Yes6c318.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6670%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes6c300.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.15934.3%4 W · 89 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…e7d0backed Yes9c300$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.760%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes6c295.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1770%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes7c289.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7213321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c287.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.732781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…f957backed Yes7c279.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c81…f6f6backed Yes9c264.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed Yes5c251.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.93836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d8d…e00dbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes14c248$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.52644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8246…4096backed Yes8c243.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-90.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes7c239.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc61…eeb0backed Yes6c238.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2031…1d23backed Yes6c233.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-50.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c227.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91368.3%3 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x74cc…f578backed Yes7c224.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…5631backed Yes7c224.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa8…d42ebacked Yes7c218.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03bb…9462backed Yes11c211.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes11c210.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.132948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3564…2215backed Yes16c205.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5448…e03dbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.870%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf5a…b27bbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0670%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bed…8b5ebacked Yes13c195.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a4…a537backed Yes7c185.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8360%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7355…d53ebacked Yes6c182.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1257…d71fbacked Yes12c180.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a5…7e15backed Yes6c170$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x295e…6adfbacked Yes7c160.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec9…75c7backed Yes12c160.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc81f…656ebacked Yes13c159.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d78…6929backed Yes6c157.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c7…2556backed Yes10c154.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab66…28f5backed Yes13c154.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…e9c8backed Yes9c150$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.47520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-64.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a02…c97bbacked Yes11c150$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes13c148.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes9c147.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes8c129.87$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6548414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29d8…c4fbbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…7a00backed Yes18c124.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…84bebacked Yes15c123$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.451747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b99…3f74backed Yes13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-61.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd641…f7debacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes11c97.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdea…6951backed Yes15c97.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes18c78.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.591,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee76…8fedbacked No59c64.72$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.283378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.9wins+0.21per pick58cpaid+23.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.