TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01c2…8ace

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 51 out of 100; worst Movies at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST3718.9%7 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$250.39
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$269
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$291
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$4,987Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+36.2%+$1,804.64
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$299
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$701Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+411.3%+$2,884.55
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$1,001
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,045Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$1,044.55
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$476Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$476.21
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$640.98
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$995Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$994.65
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$2,878Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$2,878.12
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,001Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,001
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,768.84
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$4,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+41.8%+$1,834.46
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$301
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$5,234Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+124.2%+$6,501.07
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$50.22
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+274.7%+$233.49
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$97.06
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$46.84
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$96.26
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Lucas Sinclair die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m and 112m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$65
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$21.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$199
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.