Music · resolved market
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9301cab840b1a7901d9ae5713bd1a3e9bdee1198ea1f3828d16a90fa0c6c78ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d5…6b9abacked Yes | 60c | 5,089$3,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76a…841ebacked Yes | 18c | 5,073$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 58c | 4,336$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Yes | 60c | 3,333$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes | 28c | 3,085$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b02…e5ffbacked Yes | 41c | 3,000$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 2,952$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.99 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 12c | 2,639$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.94 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 39c | 2,461$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…7424backed Yes | 57c | 2,212$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 64c | 1,968$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.37 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…4841backed Yes | 57c | 1,858$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,599$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…a59fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,543$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 45c | 1,511$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.29 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,502$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2229…6bf8backed Yes | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…7475backed Yes | 67c | 1,292$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0805…31c0backed Yes | 49c | 1,281$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 20c | 1,180$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 57c | 1,179$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.1 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 1,056$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 33c | 1,050$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.5 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…5fd9backed Yes | 69c | 1,015$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 37c | 999.89$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 66c | 964$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…fcdcbacked Yes | 57c | 945.58$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 55c | 881.03$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed No | 53c | 868.03$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 41c | 862.05$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.62 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 46c | 830.55$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…7865backed Yes | 59c | 760$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 33c | 749.97$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 44c | 749.18$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…3526backed Yes | 35c | 729.02$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 689.87$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.47 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 10c | 686.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 71c | 678.99$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 37c | 677.35$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 676.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 36c | 570.92$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 54c | 557.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…b577backed Yes | 32c | 536.33$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed Yes | 58c | 524.13$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed Yes | 38c | 520$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 48c | 450.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…a660backed Yes | 11c | 444.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c29…0b7cbacked Yes | 63c | 438.78$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…8404backed Yes | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ee…27cfbacked Yes | 49c | 416.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…fcabbacked Yes | 19c | 414.19$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ab…1601backed Yes | 29c | 407.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 9c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68b…60aebacked Yes | 51c | 394.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 51c | 376.91$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5740…5ac8backed Yes | 63c | 369.48$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 54c | 365.48$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a87…0f4abacked Yes | 55c | 364.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe866…4999backed Yes | 28c | 358.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528e…1d21backed Yes | 73c | 342.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Yes | 15c | 337.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 28c | 334.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…974fbacked Yes | 68c | 333.91$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…00f9backed Yes | 60c | 330$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf5…e28bbacked Yes | 36c | 324.05$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…0e64backed Yes | 66c | 303.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…48f9backed Yes | 17c | 298.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…94f4backed Yes | 24c | 290.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 58c | 270$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed No | 80c | 263.44$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…95f0backed Yes | 34c | 254.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…aa4fbacked Yes | 43c | 253.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…acc6backed Yes | 29c | 250.01$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed Yes | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…03a1backed Yes | 36c | 232.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 69c | 232.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…23e3backed Yes | 62c | 232.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…4092backed Yes | 63c | 231.75$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…9aa9backed No | 63c | 228.79$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…2427backed Yes | 22c | 228.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 70c | 227.16$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…2dd9backed No | 55c | 225.65$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 51c | 220.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.59 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 64c | 220$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…da09backed Yes | 56c | 207.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9913…b2d0backed Yes | 64c | 205.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…cdd8backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes | 63c | 199.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…a0e2backed Yes | 14c | 197.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…0209backed Yes | 30c | 184.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Santa Tell Me - Ariana Grande be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.