Music · resolved market
Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fd6076241cf4ab0e5e255a18de253c00087902f0d68eb14bfe70290d01d4128
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 49c | 7,806$3,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,995.72 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 60c | 7,804$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102.28 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155f…d7dfbacked Yes | 61c | 7,791$4,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,057.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e0…9412backed Yes | 75c | 4,074$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.66 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 34c | 3,803$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,522.73 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 63c | 3,575$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 41c | 2,552$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 67c | 2,039$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 22c | 2,028$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 28c | 1,800$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.99 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 1c | 1,794$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3a…a709backed Yes | 47c | 1,739$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,482$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…48f9backed Yes | 76c | 1,460$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 15c | 1,300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 51c | 1,258$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.82 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,180$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.66 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 61c | 1,101$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Yes | 30c | 1,080$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…4a77backed Yes | 40c | 1,040$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 14c | 910.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…9218backed Yes | 79c | 834.41$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 57c | 800$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 60c | 722.82$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…8cf0backed Yes | 79c | 705.4$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed No | 44c | 692.66$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 59c | 664.7$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.22 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 46c | 615.29$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 32c | 600$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 577.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.43 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 39c | 566.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.24 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…4df8backed Yes | 57c | 528.07$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 47c | 523.24$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ab…1601backed Yes | 68c | 512.37$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed No | 12c | 499.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 57c | 455.16$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…f572backed Yes | 63c | 453.37$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 56c | 435.55$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46e…92c3backed Yes | 46c | 435.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 420.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 44c | 414.32$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 43c | 409.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…9457backed Yes | 37c | 407$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked Yes | 74c | 399.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked No | 72c | 383.51$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…34d9backed Yes | 35c | 359.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked Yes | 56c | 350.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 50c | 334.28$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 62c | 334$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked No | 48c | 331.52$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…3366backed No | 63c | 330.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 42c | 324.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Yes | 32c | 309.96$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 37c | 305.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd81…ada7backed No | 71c | 300.39$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fe…9b1fbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 36c | 299.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.98 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 68c | 293.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…f93abacked No | 13c | 289.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce79…8676backed Yes | 35c | 286.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…5fd9backed No | 70c | 286.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464b…2c0ebacked Yes | 35c | 280$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 264.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 65c | 251.95$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…2d13backed Yes | 43c | 241.86$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 61c | 234.03$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 38c | 225.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 70c | 215.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes | 42c | 215$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a0…0589backed Yes | 50c | 209.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 37c | 204.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 59c | 203.77$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2704…cdd8backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 58c | 199.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 17c | 194.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 52c | 193.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked Yes | 31c | 179.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 38c | 178.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed Yes | 73c | 175.44$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a7…3763backed Yes | 19c | 174.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 58c | 171.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889b…03a1backed Yes | 49c | 163.96$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…786bbacked Yes | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…51afbacked Yes | 39c | 154.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eae…558abacked Yes | 40c | 153.11$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…f10ebacked No | 66c | 151.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f5febacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…353bbacked Yes | 70c | 143.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 72c | 143.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 63c | 143.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…78fabacked Yes | 35c | 141.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…f0fdbacked Yes | 66c | 136.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 43c | 134.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 23c | 129.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Santa Tell Me - Ariana Grande be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.