Music · resolved market
Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd30b335573b59df82a68cd6f67cd664c83f1cb67a0048e3cfac41a6c8fce2081
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 0c | 7,133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 1c | 3,874$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…9ae5backed Yes | 3c | 3,463$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0e…f93abacked Yes | 1c | 2,211$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 1c | 1,926$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…1481backed Yes | 2c | 1,614$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…df67backed Yes | 3c | 678.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…2e00backed Yes | 4c | 650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…c663backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…1ad9backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?Yes won
- Will Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree - Brenda Lee be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
- Will Santa Tell Me - Ariana Grande be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.