TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c76…8d1c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST130%0 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$23.2
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$24.64
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$52.5
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$25.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$16.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$391.58
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.68
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.75
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+271%+$65.45
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-42%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed SK Slavia Praha · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Club Brugge KV vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+44.5%+$61.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Aster all time high by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+177.8%+$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$85.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$33.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+31.6%+$31.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+26%+$20.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC vs. US Lecce end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+25%+$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$19.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$125.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$684Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$683.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Benin vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$154
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.