Stocks · resolved market
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f246793917a95af2769ce69f057d4015f7f94a6a18f729ab041f90eab4e5445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,357 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 62c | 5,516$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7339backed No | 42c | 3,180$1,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,335.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5168…3e8bbacked Yes | 58c | 3,180$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…ba9ebacked No | 39c | 2,819$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed No | 30c | 2,503$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 38c | 1,435$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 46c | 1,310$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 44c | 1,019$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.93 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 63c | 922$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 38c | 832.6$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 33c | 831.98$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.55 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 31c | 812.52$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 16c | 757$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 63c | 732.22$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…0e2ebacked No | 42c | 712.7$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Yes | 44c | 697.44$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 658.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 25c | 658.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0519…bb35backed Yes | 74c | 647.13$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed No | 29c | 593.24$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7081…818bbacked No | 27c | 573.88$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf795…4b3ebacked No | 27c | 554$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 535.87$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…573fbacked No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8f…86a3backed Yes | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0031…60d2backed No | 36c | 487.7$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…25d8backed No | 23c | 476.43$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 26c | 472.73$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c94…816fbacked Yes | 64c | 470.15$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587e…8834backed Yes | 79c | 467$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 36c | 457.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 35c | 457.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed Yes | 68c | 451.48$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 66c | 435.41$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 433.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 33c | 431.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.16 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 68c | 405.76$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778f…3363backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed No | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1051…b985backed Yes | 72c | 388.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2a…e5a3backed No | 21c | 377$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…d3dabacked No | 37c | 359.71$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 353.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.69 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed No | 25c | 351.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 69c | 345.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 332.28$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 37c | 320.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2a…a91fbacked No | 42c | 297.16$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841f…8c4bbacked No | 30c | 289$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…cba5backed No | 22c | 287.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 271$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 261.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…5c9bbacked No | 42c | 255$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6d…bab2backed Yes | 79c | 251$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 24c | 241.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…597bbacked Yes | 42c | 240$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes | 79c | 239.04$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 15c | 232.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…97e6backed No | 70c | 229.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 63c | 216.1$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 61c | 215.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 26c | 215$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 74c | 210$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 59c | 201.49$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…1ac1backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6956backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6822…219bbacked Yes | 72c | 193.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…75d8backed Yes | 53c | 193$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 187.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 185.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…9e3dbacked No | 36c | 184$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…c31bbacked Yes | 77c | 163.01$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 78c | 162.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes | 52c | 158.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd47d…698abacked No | 28c | 158$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…313cbacked Yes | 79c | 156$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 34c | 155.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd336…cecebacked Yes | 73c | 154$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 41c | 152.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…8d7cbacked No | 36c | 152.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…7f44backed No | 24c | 149.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 64c | 144.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 71c | 139$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 131.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…620abacked Yes | 73c | 130.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd771…489fbacked No | 38c | 124.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 37c | 122$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 72c | 119.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 60c | 119$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 30c | 116$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 22c | 115.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…45f6backed No | 22c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 65c | 108.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 29c | 101.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 63c | 100.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.