TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,357

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,357 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes62c5,516$3,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94f…7339backed No42c3,180$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5168…3e8bbacked Yes58c3,180$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,335.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c5…ba9ebacked No39c2,819$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed No30c2,503$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked No38c1,435$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed No46c1,310$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-68.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No44c1,019$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.933920.5%8 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes63c922$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed No38c832.6$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.041723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No33c831.98$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.551,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No31c812.52$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.12213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No16c757$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.521822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes63c732.22$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.734245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9723…0e2ebacked No42c712.7$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Yes44c697.44$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No27c658.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.319934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No25c658.82$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0519…bb35backed Yes74c647.13$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No29c593.24$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7081…818bbacked No27c573.88$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf795…4b3ebacked No27c554$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No22c535.87$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.011117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb29…573fbacked No30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff8f…86a3backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0031…60d2backed No36c487.7$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba1…25d8backed No23c476.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No26c472.73$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.624934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c94…816fbacked Yes64c470.15$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x587e…8834backed Yes79c467$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No36c457.93$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.14185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No35c457.89$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes68c451.48$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes66c435.41$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No42c433.7$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.038524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No33c431.38$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.169324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes68c405.76$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x778f…3363backed Yes73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4218…4814backed No38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1051…b985backed Yes72c388.71$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2a…e5a3backed No21c377$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e48…d3dabacked No37c359.71$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No30c353.12$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.6915947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed No25c351.05$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993b…dedabacked Yes69c345.15$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes68c332.28$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.217049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed No37c320.69$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.491827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf2a…a91fbacked No42c297.16$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x841f…8c4bbacked No30c289$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7b…cba5backed No22c287.47$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No13c271$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No28c261.21$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xafce…5c9bbacked No42c255$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d6d…bab2backed Yes79c251$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked No24c241.08$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.95333%1 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-88.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3d…597bbacked Yes42c240$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40fe…3bfdbacked Yes79c239.04$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No15c232.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3321820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x10a1…97e6backed No70c229.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes63c216.1$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes61c215.18$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.378140.7%33 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No26c215$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9512035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Yes74c210$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.86771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes59c201.49$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…1ac1backed No56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb2b…6956backed Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4822…0de4backed No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49bb…aaf9backed No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6822…219bbacked Yes72c193.51$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88d0…75d8backed Yes53c193$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No25c187.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5716418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No26c185.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9722129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x698a…9e3dbacked No36c184$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf14e…c31bbacked Yes77c163.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes78c162.09$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.437332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes52c158.23$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.891414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd47d…698abacked No28c158$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4738…313cbacked Yes79c156$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked No34c155.26$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.543737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd336…cecebacked Yes73c154$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No41c152.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6742…8d7cbacked No36c152.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…c84dbacked No47c150$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5b…7f44backed No24c149.97$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes64c144.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.597577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes71c139$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes61c131.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9215131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3151…620abacked Yes73c130.46$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked No38c124.81$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No37c122$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.765937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes72c119.13$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.789026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes60c119$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No30c116$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.565628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed No22c115.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.393938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0787…45f6backed No22c113$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.34333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes65c108.83$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.427338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No29c101.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.598239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes63c100.35$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.93560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.