Stocks · resolved market
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c6ac9ef48adbe14e96a3acb3a64873ed4b877ffddb29ec46d7e49617e9d86fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $335,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe510…9840backed Yes | 1c | 10,725$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…85d2backed Yes | 1c | 10,725$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eea…444bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,705$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e33…cd71backed Yes | 2c | 10,705$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…13dbbacked Yes | 2c | 10,230$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecec…c686backed Yes | 2c | 10,230$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…f174backed Yes | 1c | 7,729$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…87ffbacked Yes | 1c | 7,729$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797c…be4fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,680$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d6…69e6backed Yes | 2c | 7,680$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe816…ff03backed Yes | 7c | 6,015$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 4,797$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…79ddbacked Yes | 6c | 4,743$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 3,678$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…bc2dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736a…80cebacked Yes | 2c | 3,105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 6c | 3,009$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 2c | 2,994$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…5a5abacked Yes | 5c | 2,721$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,540$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 1c | 2,229$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 1c | 2,078$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 2c | 2,057$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,943$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…32cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,690$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7460…1723backed Yes | 7c | 1,547$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…2d0ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,295$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Yes | 8c | 1,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,156$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…5c86backed Yes | 2c | 1,156$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df5…e7c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 2c | 1,116$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 1,052$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,009$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 989.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 868.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…0550backed Yes | 1c | 834.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6501…5983backed Yes | 3c | 790$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ea…5f43backed Yes | 2c | 729.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 702.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…dcfabacked Yes | 2c | 670.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +709.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 666.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 645.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 3c | 608.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 552.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 8c | 537.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 484$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…fdfcbacked Yes | 3c | 462.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 442.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 8c | 425.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…ef90backed Yes | 8c | 370.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 299.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…04bebacked Yes | 4c | 293$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b1…e593backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…dd5dbacked Yes | 8c | 210.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…64d1backed Yes | 6c | 167.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.