TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,371

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb855…6749backed Yes10c6,403$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98cd…c987backed Yes2c4,597$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba77…5a5dbacked Yes2c2,520$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed Yes4c2,161$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes1c2,114$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-62.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…3ca2backed Yes1c1,737$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c1,683$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.11195.3%1 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4c4…f08ebacked Yes1c1,577$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes9c1,561$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.422213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-56%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc4…74a5backed Yes2c1,514$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,325$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.71924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…47e0backed Yes23c1,300$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fb…7e77backed Yes18c1,170$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,108$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.834168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0fd…f5dfbacked Yes12c1,102$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.141414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8534…ff06backed Yes2c1,099$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x817f…bf28backed Yes3c1,057$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c967.73$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b5a…2e45backed No80c946.17$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff27…f845backed Yes21c848$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…61dabacked Yes20c808$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe197…a4cebacked Yes18c782$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes11c721.32$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.421822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes17c676.72$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9113…6329backed Yes23c650.83$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c593.21$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.661117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a8…206abacked Yes5c575$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c553.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c546.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.531,4438.8%127 W · 1,316 L-53.1wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b71…cb46backed Yes9c541.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes22c539.5$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.87333%1 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick13cpaid-88.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ac0…b014backed Yes24c530$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f42…3d3dbacked Yes21c530$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No76c503.09$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.86580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5012…4a67backed Yes25c490$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x072c…0b1fbacked No80c480$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x109d…9274backed No80c448$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bd…e897backed No79c425$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde29…2c8cbacked No79c423$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd47b…5a9ebacked No80c360$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e46…bb13backed No79c330$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes5c318.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.787726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes33c298.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.121723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x590f…d809backed Yes26c287.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c273.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes6c269.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.87616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes7c265.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3180%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ba…ee13backed Yes24c265$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d0…75d8backed No73c248$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes16c237$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.783737.8%14 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No76c226.13$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.272688.5%23 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+35.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes21c221.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.622626.9%7 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c221.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5616418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed Yes15c206.67$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314738.3%18 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa75e…5fecbacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes12c191.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.763630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22ea…5f43backed Yes24c180.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No77c156.72$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.267577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59431.9%30 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes25c138.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.785937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes27c132.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.08633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed Yes27c108.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.94616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-75.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c106$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7186338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes19c104.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3827429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes10c102.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+146.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No34c100.27$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.42450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes22c96.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3792…3a3abacked Yes18c96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b4…3c5abacked No75c91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.952231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-52.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes20c90.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5615947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No32c85.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.189124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No76c81.09$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4622129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d73…43f6backed Yes19c80.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8b9…c204backed Yes22c75.61$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes24c70.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-48.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed Yes34c66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.261827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No70c65$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes32c64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.715628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes19c63.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb69b…f08ebacked Yes35c61.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5520…40d7backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes21c58.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfde3…9e2cbacked No75c57.84$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes20c55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4f…2d2bbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes23c47.54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.933938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…9fdcbacked No76c46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48fb…229cbacked Yes24c46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed Yes31c43.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2502…8616backed No76c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5390…565cbacked Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No60c39.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.98536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f7dcbacked No79c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed No70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+83%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed No78c25.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No57c22.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.522085%17 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No67c20.74$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.753672.2%26 W · 10 L+9.9wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+62.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.46141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+268%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.