Stocks · resolved market
Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b7809b7b3a59dbe9e3d3e1c3041fd3cc09e6a044cdebac3cf88b2ace75bb140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 53c | 8,719$4,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 34c | 3,464$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 71c | 2,782$1,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 70c | 2,769$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.82 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 52c | 2,156$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 22c | 2,139$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.02 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,606$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 19c | 1,521$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.48 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…3beebacked No | 77c | 1,080$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 26c | 1,044$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.28 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed No | 9c | 854$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 68c | 847.72$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.94 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 73c | 794.96$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 45c | 739.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 669.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 70c | 659.98$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 74c | 534.49$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed No | 70c | 526.4$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 6c | 521.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 25c | 514.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.66 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 40c | 466.38$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.57 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 24c | 443.49$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.56 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 34c | 442.84$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.32 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 373.36$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.81 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…52b0backed Yes | 29c | 349.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed No | 68c | 326$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 65c | 305.35$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…e6c6backed Yes | 34c | 288.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 69c | 287.32$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.83 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 68c | 287$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…70e0backed Yes | 67c | 280$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 35c | 232.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 232$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.19 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 65c | 230.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…b5d1backed Yes | 31c | 228.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980c…3771backed No | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…e1e8backed No | 68c | 218.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c01…30d5backed No | 50c | 210.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 63c | 196.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 69c | 195.42$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.79 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…62fabacked No | 68c | 190$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 53c | 188.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 183.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 168.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.63 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…08c7backed No | 66c | 168$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 160.3$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.82 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 16c | 159.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 19c | 146.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d77…9dd7backed No | 21c | 146$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 143$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…0764backed Yes | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…f08ebacked No | 74c | 139.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdda8…0e21backed No | 66c | 120$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed No | 76c | 115.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 28c | 115.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…21cdbacked Yes | 79c | 110.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 53c | 103.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5c…60b3backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 69c | 99.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked No | 64c | 98.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 40c | 97.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 74c | 93.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 33c | 91.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 86.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…7155backed No | 71c | 74.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…87b1backed No | 69c | 73.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…aaf9backed No | 40c | 71.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 68.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde54…444dbacked No | 56c | 55.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 54.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked No | 66c | 50.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…8a38backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 23c | 48.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2eb…14eebacked Yes | 45c | 47.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc337…c55bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…db0ebacked Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…78f8backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…97e6backed Yes | 58c | 31.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…e200backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd787…7838backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…c5efbacked Yes | 44c | 29.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…bd49backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 59c | 17.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…6959backed No | 70c | 16.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9909…d1bdbacked No | 68c | 16.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.