TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x07e0…e1e8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
90
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$6.32
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31%+$7.1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.85
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.8
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+39.8%+$38.4
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.2
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$101.7
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+69.5%+$143.5
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$29.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$68.66
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.32
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$64.17
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+61.8%+$234.42
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+56.9%+$99.02
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$41.6
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+90.8%+$121.69
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+112.5%+$181.97
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$879Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$274.14
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$406.52
Will Powell say "Dollar" 2+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.54
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$336.95
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$108
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$77.62
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+57.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-40.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Movistar KOI win the LEC 2026 Versus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.8
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+43.4%+$53.14
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
All 3 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$8.65
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.58
Megaquake by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$32.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.96
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Utahbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$14.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+92.3%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$24.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.