NFL · resolved market
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd9bf0e135638e608261797209989d4ced475ece27ecd2ffb15cd86ee4cfdaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $543,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $511,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1223…d424backed Yes | 29c | 42,135$12,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,173.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 32c | 30,320$9,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,591.83 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 23c | 30,000$7,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,050 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd339…d3a1backed Yes | 30c | 17,443$5,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,193.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 16,767$12,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.95 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed No | 74c | 10,793$8,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,784.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…ded2backed No | 72c | 10,328$7,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,871.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked Yes | 26c | 10,146$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.04 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed No | 67c | 9,833$6,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.89 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9723…77d8backed Yes | 32c | 9,720$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c93…a00bbacked No | 69c | 9,355$6,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,909.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 25c | 8,147$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.38 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked No | 62c | 8,044$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.31 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 79c | 7,164$5,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,474.84 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 68c | 6,049$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.91 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…cbdbbacked No | 74c | 5,922$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,336$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.9 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 8c | 5,022$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.68 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 4,925$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.21 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…ce9ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,185$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…fe9dbacked No | 75c | 4,002$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 31c | 4,001$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.25 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…0c53backed Yes | 30c | 3,722$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 65c | 3,510$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.35 | 129 | 34.9%45 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…afcbbacked Yes | 33c | 3,450$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.63 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed No | 73c | 3,403$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.93 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…c3c3backed Yes | 27c | 3,288$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 3,134$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.57 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2b…7631backed No | 69c | 3,128$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…61d1backed Yes | 23c | 3,113$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.25 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a93…47c6backed Yes | 31c | 3,113$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 30c | 3,058$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 36c | 2,950$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 67c | 2,855$1,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.24 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed No | 75c | 2,852$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 2,748$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.59 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e2…106dbacked No | 69c | 2,576$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…0dd6backed Yes | 31c | 2,503$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…0554backed Yes | 26c | 2,433$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.94 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c47…4275backed Yes | 31c | 2,415$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 31c | 2,371$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.36 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 70c | 2,264$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.53 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 64c | 2,076$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.97 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5621…9c70backed Yes | 31c | 2,033$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,028$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed No | 75c | 2,005$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…12e6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…0385backed No | 69c | 1,988$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…f187backed Yes | 45c | 1,987$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd321…0531backed No | 69c | 1,975$1,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed No | 69c | 1,960$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.07 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5b…3946backed Yes | 31c | 1,778$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 1,740$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,689$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.9 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Yes | 8c | 1,581$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bf…1e46backed Yes | 12c | 1,570$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12c…cb6ebacked No | 69c | 1,560$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…7d24backed Yes | 31c | 1,554$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…43d5backed Yes | 31c | 1,516$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…57d2backed Yes | 31c | 1,515$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 1,510$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.08 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 69c | 1,510$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc2…e81bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,466$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 24c | 1,455$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.91 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1224…0dcfbacked No | 69c | 1,420$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked No | 71c | 1,403$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.64 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6447…73eabacked Yes | 31c | 1,380$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…8051backed Yes | 31c | 1,354$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…0852backed Yes | 31c | 1,338$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…e05dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,329$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…8afbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,322$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724d…8deabacked No | 68c | 1,301$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 28c | 1,300$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 19c | 1,250$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.26 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 22c | 1,233$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.83 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…036cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,209$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…b0babacked Yes | 31c | 1,207$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd35…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,206$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 63c | 1,188$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 25c | 1,181$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.25 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 80c | 1,172$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…281dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,148$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…cb0fbacked No | 69c | 1,137$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…a254backed No | 69c | 1,118$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6797backed No | 70c | 1,100$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0ff6backed No | 69c | 1,070$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 31c | 1,046$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 34c | 1,035$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Yes | 23c | 1,019$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb0…837dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,018$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d18…4972backed Yes | 25c | 1,016$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.84 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…ecd0backed Yes | 31c | 1,009$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…d640backed No | 69c | 1,000$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.96 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 66 | 7.6%5 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7abe…b47ebacked Yes | 5c | 993.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…c060backed Yes | 31c | 977$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 31c | 950.28$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.4 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.