NFL · resolved market
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd599ca075411bb0eb9620f163f7d3d92eb0f9c97b045d73983019a4f8d98ca4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683a…0bdebacked Yes | 15c | 224,664$34,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,042.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 4,448$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.03 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,445$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 2,029$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,861$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 1,376$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 16c | 1,371$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 15c | 1,339$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 16c | 1,306$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.28 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 1,249$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.09 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 6c | 1,199$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes | 4c | 1,058$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 919.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 16c | 914.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb73a…542cbacked Yes | 3c | 784.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 16c | 688$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 670.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…f50fbacked Yes | 19c | 668$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Yes | 15c | 649.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 5c | 645.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 15c | 626$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x119e…2129backed Yes | 16c | 606.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ca…5107backed Yes | 14c | 586.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…3119backed Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 15c | 378.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 15c | 363.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…36ccbacked Yes | 16c | 362.76$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 11c | 303.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes | 16c | 244$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…160abacked Yes | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…894dbacked Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fdc3backed Yes | 16c | 165$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…dd27backed Yes | 15c | 132.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…5b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 129.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…13b5backed Yes | 10c | 104.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…61d1backed Yes | 16c | 92.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 13c | 90.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…a748backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…9b11backed Yes | 16c | 62.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.