NFL · resolved market
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf41d321ed59c63b6575bc6b7f16f0d9e06bcba9ed363acbdc3e32583bbb7a7c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,835$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 3c | 2,526$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.34 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 10c | 1,121$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.72 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes | 2c | 989.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 16c | 961.54$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 4c | 656$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes | 17c | 586.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 16c | 492$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 12c | 391.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 11c | 390.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 16c | 307.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb597…ec76backed Yes | 17c | 181.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9c48backed Yes | 18c | 180.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 13c | 153.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e2…e255backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Yes | 16c | 78.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.