NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590d839e2b36e01deeb261bcdaa2fc319cd414b084b4bc2f64ed89fef485c61a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2584…a7afbacked Yes | 23c | 17,200$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,956 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…8b16backed No | 79c | 11,379$8,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes | 21c | 9,060$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.69 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…314ebacked No | 77c | 6,200$4,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…55b1backed No | 77c | 5,600$4,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…6923backed No | 77c | 5,400$4,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c05…36b3backed Yes | 24c | 4,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes | 10c | 3,010$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 24c | 1,974$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.31 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…ee69backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 176 | 9.1%16 W · 160 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 20c | 860.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.34 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 19c | 713.74$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db1…35a9backed Yes | 14c | 587.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72e…0ae6backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 12c | 438.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes | 3c | 428.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725c…01a1backed Yes | 11c | 409.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 352.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Yes | 27c | 203.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 183 | 36.1%66 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 101 | 4%4 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa835…b8dbbacked Yes | 26c | 181.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 24c | 179.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 15c | 147.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 18c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Yes | 15c | 118.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…4e70backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…cd0bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3c…0915backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 177 | 41.8%74 W · 103 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 76c | 82.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…8444backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 93 | 69.9%65 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd837…53d4backed Yes | 24c | 63.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…59edbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 184 | 27.7%51 W · 133 L | -18.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…7e00backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…c878backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…354ebacked No | 74c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 74c | 15.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?this page
- Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
- Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
- Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.