NFL · resolved market

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2f335403a45632bc9b48a50e3adecdcc0ccd843733eae481a00ec4c9eb0a627

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $594,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $560,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4f9c…fe9dbacked Yes	20c	10,216$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9af…497cbacked Yes	21c	7,968$1,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,656.5	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Yes	26c	7,633$2,019 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,018.9	68	41.2%28 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+20%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes	22c	5,115$1,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,116.55	78	57.7%45 W · 33 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	5,080$1,058 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,057.73	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No	80c	5,000$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No	77c	4,287$3,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$987.32	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Yes	29c	4,154$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,213.21	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	19c	4,142$784 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.91	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca91…978cbacked Yes	20c	3,998$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.52	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes	23c	3,500$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795	307	43.6%134 W · 173 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes	28c	3,500$993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$993.13	221	42.1%93 W · 128 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	26c	3,318$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.75	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb577…e39bbacked Yes	19c	3,238$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.14	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbca…3b1ebacked Yes	20c	3,095$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.86	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.21per pick	41cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes	16c	3,016$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.55	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6989…b412backed Yes	15c	2,999$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$463.9	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d2c…5011backed No	75c	2,913$2,188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$725.14	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb985…16e0backed Yes	27c	2,851$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777.05	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe78f…73d8backed Yes	27c	2,815$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e94…dcf6backed Yes	23c	2,428$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.74	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c97…32ddbacked Yes	17c	2,332$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.34	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked No	80c	2,225$1,780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3221…0da0backed Yes	20c	2,083$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Yes	24c	2,046$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	-6.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x372e…ede1backed Yes	26c	2,027$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.56	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa988…ed6fbacked Yes	25c	2,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56cc…6742backed Yes	27c	1,975$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.83	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	43cpaid	-79%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	10c	1,954$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.56	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec9…72d7backed Yes	16c	1,915$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed No	79c	1,855$1,468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$386.8	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes	17c	1,837$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.96	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…fca9backed No	76c	1,823$1,383 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.44	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	44cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4895…bd59backed Yes	25c	1,744$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c7…4539backed Yes	25c	1,744$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Yes	27c	1,700$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc81b…99aabacked Yes	27c	1,694$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.78	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204e…ddedbacked Yes	18c	1,658$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.28	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes	20c	1,648$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.38	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d6…b64bbacked Yes	17c	1,642$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6f…04cebacked Yes	17c	1,642$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5882…4314backed Yes	17c	1,641$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.86	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c8…2a02backed Yes	28c	1,641$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.52	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59e6…36dbbacked No	73c	1,640$1,202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$437.53	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…ac2bbacked No	73c	1,639$1,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.18	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a76…a1eebacked No	76c	1,618$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.09	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1935…6e08backed Yes	22c	1,616$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.72	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-78%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7237…6236backed No	73c	1,612$1,181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.93	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c22…160abacked Yes	19c	1,606$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.95	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13e…5282backed Yes	15c	1,604$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.02	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	40cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd93…49e9backed Yes	27c	1,600$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.54	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	37cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes	18c	1,597$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.58	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x115f…3068backed No	73c	1,585$1,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.9	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65a1…caaebacked Yes	18c	1,576$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.52	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb511…dedfbacked Yes	17c	1,554$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.15	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x199e…ec86backed Yes	27c	1,546$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.96	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4f…2e20backed Yes	17c	1,544$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.48	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	30cpaid	-78%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07e0…62b8backed Yes	17c	1,510$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.7	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	15c	1,500$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.26	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef4…2fc6backed Yes	25c	1,436$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+46.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x724d…8deabacked No	78c	1,400$1,095 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.58	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	20c	1,400$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.17	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes	19c	1,372$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.44	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7bf…b567backed Yes	19c	1,360$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.69	120	39.2%47 W · 73 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe312…6b25backed No	75c	1,359$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.04	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…61d1backed Yes	22c	1,330$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.57	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xafe8…e999backed No	76c	1,322$1,002 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.12	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59b3…fe2bbacked No	76c	1,308$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.69	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f6c…2543backed Yes	19c	1,269$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.42	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+160.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Yes	17c	1,262$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.36	124	47.6%59 W · 65 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda88…990bbacked Yes	29c	1,247$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.64	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No	79c	1,244$982 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$262.69	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…b408backed Yes	25c	1,244$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda6d…1b6dbacked Yes	27c	1,235$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.39	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-72%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf772…24f4backed Yes	23c	1,202$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	36cpaid	-70.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd872…07aabacked Yes	22c	1,200$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.81	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-65%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Yes	25c	1,200$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	136	41.9%57 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	36c	1,199$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.65	477	38.6%184 W · 293 L	-6.8wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No	78c	1,198$934 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.22	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…44d5backed No	74c	1,136$841 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295.36	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	72c	1,120$804 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.12	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b81…b5f4backed Yes	27c	1,118$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.29	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf800…c1a5backed No	78c	1,112$868 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.74	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+53.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0695…ed93backed Yes	27c	1,110$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc0…a03bbacked Yes	18c	1,110$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.43	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398e…daf7backed Yes	23c	1,091$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.06	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a7c…4424backed No	75c	1,089$817 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.25	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1bf…6fabbacked No	73c	1,087$794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.49	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9937…384cbacked Yes	26c	1,086$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.72	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20a0…f830backed Yes	26c	1,076$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.83	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ea…85b6backed No	73c	1,074$788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.58	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c6…96b4backed Yes	17c	1,051$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e8…a4e4backed Yes	16c	1,051$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.31	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.17per pick	30cpaid	-80.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba42…ae55backed No	73c	1,029$751 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.71	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x885d…eac7backed Yes	17c	1,023$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.91	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e62…6ff1backed No	76c	1,019$774 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.65	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10e7…c7b4backed No	77c	1,014$778 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.62	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7912…0ae3backed Yes	19c	1,007$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+172.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefc…c227backed Yes	25c	1,007$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.75	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes	38c	1,006$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?this page
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event