TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$482,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$475,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 382 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7702…9791backed Yes72c37,117$26,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,261.183271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfaa4…82cfbacked Yes20c12,759$2,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,258.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+223.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f9f…f77bbacked Yes19c11,900$2,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,627.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+161.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9106…afcbbacked No33c10,578$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,450.252133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-34.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes67c10,023$6,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,278.723020%6 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1223…d424backed Yes49c9,821$4,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9771729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-43.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes68c9,785$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,134.1919235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c93…a00bbacked No58c7,481$4,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,366.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed No28c7,061$1,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.014634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f4…b97bbacked No71c5,430$3,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes67c4,710$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.324531.1%14 W · 31 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed Yes29c4,252$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,036.512030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Yes12c4,149$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,668.998946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No52c4,116$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.562147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…007bbacked Yes17c4,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3305156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No54c3,552$1,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.8864747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc51a…704cbacked Yes9c2,838$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,587.971833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e1…60febacked Yes71c2,807$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.51580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+24.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes68c2,542$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.53875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No37c2,378$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.335850%29 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes17c2,345$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,948.421520%3 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-37.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…61d1backed Yes22c2,293$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.795736.8%21 W · 36 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+16.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes34c2,209$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.346134.4%21 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x725c…01a1backed Yes2c2,192$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.522839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+183.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd204…3080backed Yes68c2,187$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…457abacked Yes46c2,151$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No55c2,109$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.187526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xabf3…45a3backed No30c2,078$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9760%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Yes29c2,000$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.314544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No48c1,997$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.032454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed7…f59dbacked Yes3c1,859$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.741127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+282.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,830$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.075679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked No22c1,828$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.02812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-83.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes74c1,740$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes58c1,702$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.5675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes30c1,577$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.223237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No63c1,558$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.445719.3%11 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes20c1,555$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.941442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No47c1,547$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.471435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes66c1,524$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.667661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes37c1,505$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.4619645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1811…789dbacked No33c1,479$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4260…f180backed Yes68c1,461$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.08977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick55cpaid+20.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a06…fb08backed Yes67c1,450$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.352321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No44c1,442$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.863554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes27c1,439$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.6111837.3%44 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-27.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Yes71c1,427$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.02850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes12c1,415$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.6922434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.6211255.4%62 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes43c1,339$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.982931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes55c1,293$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.869853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes19c1,261$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.887052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes18c1,252$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.297910.1%8 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes17c1,249$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+21.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ee…fc34backed Yes70c1,220$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc3…8bb9backed Yes62c1,206$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes3c1,175$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Yes41c1,142$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.779641.7%40 W · 56 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0395…c9edbacked Yes20c1,140$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.724139%16 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes49c1,105$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.6628151.6%145 W · 136 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes31c1,088$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.353923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes31c1,065$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.163119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Yes68c1,043$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.2626650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31e…54c7backed Yes20c1,036$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.911050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+65.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbeaa…fa16backed Yes30c1,010$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+35.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d4a…2215backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52017248.3%83 W · 89 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Yes42c1,000$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5853652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd265…5521backed Yes30c983.04$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.37948.1%38 W · 41 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Yes67c930.85$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c3…3242backed Yes25c891.68$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.412151.2%62 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Yes42c886$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.611428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595b…9eeabacked Yes69c878.6$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4851…16dbbacked Yes69c874.01$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.8121251.9%110 W · 102 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes2c851.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.152213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid+167.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes21c812.92$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.8629439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1591…1d81backed Yes18c798.04$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked No35c796.03$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.187951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce2…0103backed Yes56c783.73$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.834100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes54c777$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.9519436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x552b…4bd3backed Yes14c762.59$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.592259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+31.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Yes45c751.19$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.018447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No54c741.78$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.2534247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8911…8a41backed Yes3c727.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.091010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid+263.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad09…23c7backed Yes30c697.77$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+229%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c697.38$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.416949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe528…1511backed Yes72c690.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ec…8c8dbacked Yes67c643.1$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.632653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+40.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4f52…f489backed Yes70c618.13$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.721080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x188a…de60backed No30c616$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick45cpaid-69.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x607f…295fbacked Yes71c615.17$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.556100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed No60c610.54$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.976165.6%40 W · 21 L+7.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Yes18c599.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.61241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes38c590.21$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.76674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d1…b07abacked Yes69c580.1$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes19c565.51$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.8513435.8%48 W · 86 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes25c558.73$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.8113024.6%32 W · 98 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Yes70c550$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.871963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd698…34cebacked Yes29c538.38$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+242.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6221…12e6backed Yes56c537.76$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No36c528.92$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0910731.8%34 W · 73 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.