NFL · resolved market

Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2543594c5e4f5d602898402da233fb4f62133c816527e512276552eb170740ae

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $231,146
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $187,600

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,146 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x75ca…7f1bbacked Yes	15c	21,431$3,238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,238	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Yes	20c	17,601$3,445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,445.47	246	52%128 W · 118 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes	10c	9,063$928 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$927.77	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked No	80c	6,512$5,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,304.61	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,387$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.7	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	14c	6,132$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840.38	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes	14c	4,311$604 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.52	142	48.6%69 W · 73 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86c…6ec8backed Yes	11c	3,793$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.16	50	32%16 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.11per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x119e…2129backed Yes	30c	3,292$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.59	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No	79c	3,207$2,543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$663.85	162	26.5%43 W · 119 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8bb0…ca79backed Yes	21c	3,140$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-3.6wins	-0.30per pick	38cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	5c	2,979$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.54	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-71.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	17c	2,966$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.41	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes	6c	2,942$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.31	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf98…0554backed Yes	14c	2,600$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes	10c	2,534$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.1	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	-14.8wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf84…2d2dbacked Yes	5c	2,297$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.24	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	2,239$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.59	368	26.9%99 W · 269 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes	13c	2,177$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.04	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes	19c	2,095$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	137	52.6%72 W · 65 L	+10.9wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	21c	1,937$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.46	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5bf…1e46backed Yes	6c	1,912$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.68	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-50%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…85a2backed Yes	28c	1,793$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	55cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	13c	1,749$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.52	79	10.1%8 W · 71 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1260…410abacked Yes	5c	1,720$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes	11c	1,590$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.48	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb71e…4851backed Yes	22c	1,517$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.43	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	1,502$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb73a…542cbacked Yes	3c	1,452$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes	16c	1,421$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.26	128	42.2%54 W · 74 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes	4c	1,295$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.81	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked No	75c	1,285$964 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320.59	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x714c…f68dbacked Yes	17c	1,200$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	84	32.1%27 W · 57 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x725c…01a1backed Yes	6c	1,099$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+183.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes	17c	1,098$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.48	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked Yes	4c	1,065$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	68	27.9%19 W · 49 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	+62.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked Yes	15c	1,028$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead9…cc72backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Yes	25c	1,000$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.38	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc72d…320fbacked Yes	4c	1,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes	25c	999.99$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251	158	51.9%82 W · 76 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes	11c	999.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-6.3wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcded…1e24backed Yes	30c	917.91$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-76.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94ce…93ebbacked Yes	6c	909.44$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.36	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…6afdbacked Yes	13c	904.19$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.16	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes	26c	899.67$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.22	278	35.3%98 W · 180 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	79c	871.49$692 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.52	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e2…4d16backed Yes	3c	769.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.33	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	+5.2wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+85.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes	19c	753$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.78	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes	14c	742.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.29	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes	22c	705.6$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.55	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	21cpaid	-76.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aef…08f5backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes	13c	690.62$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.69	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Yes	14c	678.55$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.66	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb225…d86bbacked Yes	16c	615.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	89	56.2%50 W · 39 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a7…a8fabacked Yes	20c	609.08$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+412.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes	6c	570.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	132	17.4%23 W · 109 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+104.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe393…f016backed Yes	14c	551.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eee…c186backed Yes	21c	510.86$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x070a…4d55backed Yes	28c	500$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…3438backed Yes	15c	500$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.6wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Yes	27c	499.99$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.5	343	49.3%169 W · 174 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes	15c	497.16$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.57	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	22cpaid	-84%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	12c	494.07$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x960e…0d31backed Yes	21c	483.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad01…6f40backed Yes	21c	481.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+29.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebf0…7c7ebacked Yes	16c	476.07$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes	10c	451.96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.43	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dfa…63d5backed Yes	13c	439.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.44	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd79d…5489backed Yes	14c	422.86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	5c	422.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+167.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	11c	406.1$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.31	144	4.9%7 W · 137 L	-10.8wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec1…bfa6backed Yes	26c	400$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes	14c	388$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.26	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf524…cd0bbacked Yes	8c	376.71$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.18	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44d…edf1backed Yes	26c	375.13$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.23per pick	57cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	364.72$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.37	230	24.3%56 W · 174 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	20c	347.5$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.72	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcffa…5eddbacked Yes	16c	341.03$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	+40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	16c	329$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.24	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a6…25bcbacked Yes	16c	314.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes	19c	293.77$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.83	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	20cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x20c4…d5a1backed Yes	21c	290.15$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Yes	24c	287$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.17	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Yes	13c	275.22$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.61	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-5.4wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes	15c	250$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.34	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes	15c	233.73$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.92	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0232…9391backed Yes	25c	227.26$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	102	56.9%58 W · 44 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77fa…c0bebacked Yes	20c	222.26$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.45	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	14c	220.1$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.41	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes	24c	211.77$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.94	323	47.4%153 W · 170 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No	79c	202.01$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.42	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed Yes	19c	200.9$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48e9…f0f9backed Yes	20c	200.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0613…5204backed Yes	15c	200.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.16per pick	23cpaid	+75.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe1…7e45backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-4.8wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeaa…fa16backed No	70c	200$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.24per pick	33cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?this page
Will the Bengals win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Colts win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Dolphins win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Jets win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?Yes won
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Steelers win the AFC Championship?No won
Will the Titans win the AFC Championship?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event