TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd79d…5489

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: UFC, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+88.7%+$35.47
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will the Texans win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$60
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Texans (-1.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+78.6%+$21.4
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$41.63
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+112.8%+$45.11
Cowboys vs. Lionsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Bengals win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$88
Bengals extend Ja'Marr Chase before regular season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+61.4%+$86.52
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+117.4%+$35.22
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+92.3%+$27.69
Nets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+29.9%+$18.93
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$61.11
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+177.8%+$35.56
Will Stephon Castle win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Kevin Durant get traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$33
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Indiana (-3.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+112.8%+$45.11
Spread: Miami (-3.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+108.3%+$21.67
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$8.61
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+130.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+175.5%+$28.83
UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblettbacked Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2024, EDT+85.2%+$23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$100
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+104.9%+$41.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
DeepSeek banned in US before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Mets win the National League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.