TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Packers vs. Lions

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Packersof Packers, Lions
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,675,686
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,157,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,675,686 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,666 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Packers40c1,765,710$702,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063,360.6117041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Lions60c1,169,012$701,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701,407.221428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Packers41c496,500$201,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294,913.262065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lions59c421,983$248,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248,496.1427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Lions60c200,000$119,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,230.6810333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0b…9f41backed Lions61c192,886$117,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117,660.351973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+36.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lions32c188,545$60,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,912.286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Lions25c113,747$27,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,915.9710026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Packers40c110,000$44,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,0007440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Lions60c102,000$61,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,2007951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lions56c91,000$50,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,91024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lions50c80,062$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,0003056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Packers40c79,999$32,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,599.4731240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Packers40c75,000$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,0005850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Lions59c74,078$43,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,705.9116051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Lions60c70,000$42,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,000.0211168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lions60c68,500$41,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,28520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca36…1e9cbacked Packers39c60,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,6002653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+59.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions61c51,566$31,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,436.7444652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Packers40c50,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,0004955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Packers40c50,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,999.949359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Lions60c49,784$29,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,870.425956.8%147 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Packers66c45,341$29,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,600.4730043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Packers51c40,000$20,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,600.612657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Packers40c39,356$15,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,613.6113843.5%60 W · 78 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lions12c36,368$4,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,466.1420026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Lions25c34,906$8,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,868.8812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Packers42c34,041$14,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,720.5635848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Lions61c32,787$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,0003125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick46cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb351…5fbfbacked Lions12c32,587$3,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,937.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Lions28c32,246$9,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,178.696245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Lions18c31,752$5,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,661.393748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Packers41c31,680$12,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,691.4914252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Lions17c30,673$5,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,176.4319235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Packers39c30,221$11,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,434.965236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Lions60c30,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,0007657.9%44 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+134.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Lions48c30,000$14,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,40013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Packers58c29,836$17,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,436.372556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+29.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Packers60c29,373$17,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,635.2573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f4…efebbacked Lions60c28,000$16,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,760825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-49.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Packers40c26,049$10,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,732.212144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Lions26c25,655$6,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,670.36240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0140…9028backed Packers42c25,200$10,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,616560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Lions61c25,000$15,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,25018156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Packers63c22,041$13,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,234.1575852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Lions28c21,942$6,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,106.998532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Packers40c21,465$8,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,772.375756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Lions60c20,062$12,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,037.4310650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3413…2657backed Packers42c20,003$8,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,601.761513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Lions60c20,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Lions21c20,000$4,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,150219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Packers40c20,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,999.8830743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Lions60c18,740$11,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,243.9925137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Lions40c17,911$7,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,138.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Lions54c17,307$9,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,329.849359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0624…053fbacked Packers67c15,804$10,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,154.071752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions60c14,946$9,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0251,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Lions60c13,450$8,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0701346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lions39c12,783$5,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,043.3211643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Lions60c12,676$7,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,605.787346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Lions21c12,599$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7006540%26 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Packers40c12,488$4,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,492.513142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa704…b22ebacked Packers40c12,450$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,470366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Packers40c12,221$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,388.1524056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lions15c11,910$1,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,751.5223244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Packers40c11,111$4,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,666.594634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Lions60c10,963$6,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,577.749949.5%49 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lions60c10,733$6,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,388.0153348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Packers40c10,600$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3602441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x188c…c62bbacked Packers54c10,516$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.712564%16 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Lions59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90014342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Lions61c10,000$6,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,1003351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lions48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,80012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Packers50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0008946.1%41 W · 48 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Lions60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Packers40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,999.965431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9769…7cd7backed Lions39c9,941$3,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,834.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Lions51c9,786$4,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,990.93630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lions56c9,323$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,235.3225744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5d…f75dbacked Packers41c9,268$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+51.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Lions61c9,135$5,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,570.816339.7%25 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x702d…a37fbacked Lions60c8,900$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,34010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb60…137abacked Lions28c8,412$2,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,330.592821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lions39c8,291$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.7664747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Packers63c8,142$5,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,002.1731056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Packers39c8,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,849.9651352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Lions59c7,849$4,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,609.487248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Lions60c7,517$4,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,510.463557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Lions59c7,483$4,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,414.951735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Packers41c7,302$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,308.444546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Lions58c7,190$4,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,170.22152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb78…5206backed Packers50c6,917$3,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,466.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-38.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Lions53c6,871$3,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,628.671936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Lions42c6,806$2,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.584949%24 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Lions59c6,750$3,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,982.484940.8%20 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lions12c6,651$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.2631543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Lions34c6,611$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.3233328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lions30c6,591$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.5850242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Packers42c6,562$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,790.2917647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lions57c6,169$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,527.2731854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.