TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,789,313
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,244,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,789,313 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 780 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3979…f49ebacked Yes1c106,337$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c105,207$6,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,491.0820614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c61,125$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.66410.9%7 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes5c58,751$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.48838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed Yes37c52,476$19,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,269.731020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-55.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bae…b5debacked Yes5c46,192$2,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,284.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes1c42,346$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.293718.9%7 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd436…c71dbacked Yes2c37,882$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x296f…fbbdbacked Yes1c34,495$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0593…62febacked Yes2c31,779$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed Yes17c30,386$5,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,172.362147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes7c29,583$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes0c27,026$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.750%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Yes4c24,913$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9b…dfcdbacked Yes0c23,000$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd709…7de0backed Yes7c22,053$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed Yes0c21,841$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes2c21,169$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.858123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf2…0300backed Yes2c20,349$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10c2…77d5backed Yes7c20,001$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,494.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19449.1%4 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ead…4e64backed Yes0c18,542$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes18c17,150$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.474250%21 W · 21 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-4.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes8c16,779$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.6416612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc6…c974backed Yes1c16,743$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes5c15,845$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.853132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes11c15,589$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,647.1714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes6c15,114$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.181546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed Yes1c15,035$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…febfbacked Yes17c14,903$2,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,571.082425%6 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x995d…bd40backed Yes2c14,689$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes2c13,696$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.37834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x896f…8178backed Yes31c12,867$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee60…9f94backed Yes24c12,146$2,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,932.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No80c11,725$9,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x712c…de39backed Yes0c11,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No68c10,967$7,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,518.41080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2a1…fe8bbacked Yes0c10,547$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…e4b1backed Yes18c10,103$1,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1826…d276backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c9,537$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.96190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes29c9,500$2,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.962729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c9,235$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8254934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No69c8,275$5,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,598.1812133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes13c7,946$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.93737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes8c7,700$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.533429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No79c7,629$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.156930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x575e…dbb1backed No67c7,496$4,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,501.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04fa…6c06backed Yes16c7,318$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48bd…9d3bbacked Yes21c7,268$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes6c7,202$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked Yes16c7,132$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.52825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No76c7,000$5,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.63525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3d…34efbacked Yes24c6,567$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes15c6,559$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.833525.7%9 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes16c6,480$1,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,058.86119.7%12 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0647…8f61backed Yes10c6,259$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.4330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f7…5f41backed Yes19c6,100$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes17c6,010$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.013542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No65c6,000$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,118.414045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes6c5,697$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.662245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes5c5,677$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.692035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c71…3584backed Yes25c5,628$1,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No79c5,608$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,203.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No75c5,533$4,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.899721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes4c5,350$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.263743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x535c…f624backed Yes28c5,264$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x627a…cdc2backed Yes36c5,248$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,867.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba1…5653backed Yes1c5,181$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9833…7844backed Yes2c5,131$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.551435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16a0…7292backed Yes6c5,086$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b03…ff9dbacked Yes2c4,992$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.01100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c4,896$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.6457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x079e…599dbacked Yes21c4,891$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x397e…fe89backed Yes21c4,703$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaddb…4f44backed No77c4,692$3,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b2a…83a2backed Yes3c4,692$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12160%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked No75c4,686$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.333318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10c6…5a37backed Yes9c4,642$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5c…be26backed Yes1c4,615$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes15c4,535$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6852352.2%12 W · 11 L+4.6wins+0.20per pick32cpaid+85.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No74c4,441$3,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.792748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No70c4,385$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.58825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ba…6cbdbacked Yes3c4,286$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dee…615fbacked No72c4,178$2,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5964…5f8bbacked Yes17c4,135$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…a236backed Yes6c4,077$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6401…64ddbacked Yes11c4,067$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.07933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+143.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes4c4,034$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.562330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes7c3,881$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.915532.7%18 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes13c3,870$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No80c3,809$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.2727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…5ed4backed Yes16c3,800$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0962…55d7backed Yes19c3,793$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed Yes0c3,710$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.13372.7%1 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes14c3,471$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5077…abffbacked Yes2c3,460$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.15137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked No68c3,447$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes10c3,382$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.22933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes10c3,194$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.254445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.