TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf555…b2d5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
180
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Space, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Space at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST4912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$24.12
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$15.05
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+222.6%+$34.5
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.83
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Canada recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.53
Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will Israel annex Lebanese territory before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.1
Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.32
Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.7
Israel strike on Iran on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.44
Iran strike on Qatar today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+140.7%+$32.15
Israel military action against Iran in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Netanyahu meet with MBS before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Netanyahu out before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST3511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.85
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$200.2
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.06
Will Trump jail Fauci?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will RFK end Influenza vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.01
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$79
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$28.83
Will Donald Trump disparage Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Iranian officials visit the White House before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Bondi, Bongino or Patel out by July 18th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.92
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Trump's sovereign wealth fund acquires Bitcoin before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.49
Will DOGE audit the Federal Reserve before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$130.52
Will Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
US congress stock trading ban in Trump's first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.57
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.1
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.25
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.5
Will Trump withdraw the U.S. from NATO in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.42
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.43
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$17.6
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.06
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump deport Ukrainians before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.25
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+185.7%+$32.5
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+455.6%+$82
Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15.6
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$78.02
Crimean bridge hit before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.79
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-92.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.23
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.65
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.29
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.36
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$57.76
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.97
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.9
Will Andrej Karpathy join one of Elon Musk's companies by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.55
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.05
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.25
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.5
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.66
Will OpenAI sue Elon Musk before 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
GPT-5 released in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$48.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.7
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.29
U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.91
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.43
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.73
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.33
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
Trump meets with Carney before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Canada remove retaliatory tariffs on USA in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.25
Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Will the CDU/CSU win between 26% and 28% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.81
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.17
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.44
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28.15
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$388.96
Jeremy Hunt next Conservative party leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
All 19 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+75.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+105.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+669.2%+$87
Ye divorce before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.5
Jay-Z arrested in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.3
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+171.9%+$31.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Sep 9, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win on 2025-09-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$22.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.