AI · resolved market
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b4b48d233d854fa0793bb3ac3da246bd7863e6039300b61df035125fe4f581
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,360 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 7c | 5,570$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 24c | 4,013$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.44 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 8c | 3,029$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 2,875$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.88 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 62c | 2,760$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.06 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 52c | 2,596$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0c…a715backed Yes | 67c | 2,369$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 2,334$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,870$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 43c | 1,823$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 19c | 1,772$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.95 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 9c | 1,648$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.46 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 17c | 1,602$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,578$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07c…2592backed Yes | 1c | 1,572$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea5…060fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,540$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…13d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,390$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,187$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,166$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 28c | 1,099$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 50c | 1,094$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,043$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 57c | 992$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.02 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 43c | 988.7$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 8c | 970.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 20c | 914.48$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 16c | 903.31$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.78 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Yes | 13c | 885.07$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +450.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 855.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 11c | 805.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.78 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…4cf4backed No | 37c | 788.67$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.86 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1d…ddfdbacked Yes | 8c | 784$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…35a7backed Yes | 73c | 730$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…3ddbbacked Yes | 68c | 700$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda1…1bf3backed Yes | 6c | 695.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…f08ebacked Yes | 33c | 686.97$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 27c | 681.84$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed Yes | 20c | 664.04$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 75c | 631.92$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0aafbacked Yes | 16c | 598$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4626…8d01backed Yes | 28c | 596.53$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 16c | 588.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…a5d9backed Yes | 9c | 576.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 556.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 73c | 526.28$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…ea3cbacked No | 13c | 523.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7619…6ee7backed Yes | 30c | 521$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…1d29backed Yes | 2c | 511$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 507.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a97…1f4bbacked Yes | 7c | 496.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes | 7c | 459.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked Yes | 9c | 455.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 36c | 449.11$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed No | 71c | 428.6$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 12c | 425.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 70c | 424.32$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc3…a71fbacked Yes | 12c | 411.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabd6…7807backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 393.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 78c | 384.25$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 17c | 383.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.77 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ca…711bbacked Yes | 31c | 378$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked No | 50c | 365.96$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.92 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 79c | 361.83$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed No | 13c | 358.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 348.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 346.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 40c | 336.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.05 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 12c | 329.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 17c | 328.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b75…4a0fbacked Yes | 9c | 324.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 16c | 319.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 5c | 309$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3583…f1f2backed Yes | 10c | 307.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…c8f8backed Yes | 21c | 306.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed No | 15c | 304.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263d…d077backed No | 16c | 303.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…9c87backed Yes | 73c | 302.48$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…878cbacked No | 41c | 288.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b9…4b4abacked Yes | 8c | 275$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…141ebacked Yes | 11c | 274$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8f…82c7backed Yes | 12c | 266.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 8c | 252.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…eb83backed Yes | 74c | 252$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa452…fc8abacked Yes | 10c | 234.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 223.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…1e50backed Yes | 55c | 220.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +272%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…ea81backed Yes | 60c | 220$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed Yes | 31c | 215.71$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 14c | 208.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…a09abacked Yes | 10c | 206.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…a803backed Yes | 35c | 203.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?this page
- Grok 5 released by December 31?No won
- Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.