TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0b34…f5a6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Premier League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT1758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$103.5
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,913Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$1,186.75
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.47
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$174
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$10
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,649Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$512.16
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$7.64
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$145.33
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.66
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$309.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+114%+$379.3
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$167
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+39.1%+$7.82
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-72.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $140 end of July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$870Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$870.16
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above $100 end of July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$62.05
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.