AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x143cc115011576666f7104939ff59cf0638ac4bca64d1c6b3b5dbed16c282e95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5a6…d4f0backed No | 21c | 66,455$14,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,029.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked Yes | 76c | 34,935$26,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,536.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…8913backed No | 27c | 15,832$4,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,233.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…fb50backed No | 30c | 8,273$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…045cbacked No | 19c | 6,125$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 1c | 5,963$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 78c | 4,572$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…9f39backed No | 2c | 4,374$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 78c | 3,820$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.29 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fb…7481backed No | 24c | 3,293$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…69ddbacked Yes | 79c | 2,923$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 76c | 2,776$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.22 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 80c | 2,611$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed No | 2c | 2,528$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 17c | 2,491$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.89 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,081$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.32 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…8990backed No | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…cfdbbacked No | 10c | 1,931$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 12c | 1,841$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.47 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 78c | 1,727$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 79c | 1,664$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.01 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…f516backed No | 1c | 1,199$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed No | 23c | 1,179$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,089$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…9a17backed No | 20c | 1,044$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…1752backed No | 21c | 948.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 909.83$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.72 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 1c | 882.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed Yes | 73c | 840$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…24b8backed Yes | 78c | 834.58$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed No | 13c | 777.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 18c | 759$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 80c | 702.76$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.12 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…87f7backed No | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…2722backed Yes | 78c | 628.92$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a1…850cbacked Yes | 77c | 521$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 19c | 515.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 74c | 500$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Yes | 77c | 500$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…7842backed Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed Yes | 74c | 500$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 19c | 498.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 21c | 486$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…c2e0backed No | 20c | 481.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 22c | 472$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.84 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 17c | 455.39$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 77c | 450$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…04c0backed No | 17c | 449.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…ff03backed No | 20c | 442.77$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 20c | 416.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 20c | 412$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked Yes | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 26c | 388.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…f001backed No | 14c | 379$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 53c | 376$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.72 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…a409backed Yes | 77c | 358.44$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…d92dbacked No | 20c | 358.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 80c | 350.26$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…0812backed No | 18c | 341$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…4686backed No | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bb…c279backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0834backed No | 18c | 277.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 75c | 250$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 18c | 216.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…2688backed Yes | 79c | 204.24$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -84%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…ece9backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187d…b6adbacked No | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 15c | 187.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 18c | 185$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…5cf6backed No | 11c | 183.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 74c | 182.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…e336backed No | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…ebd7backed Yes | 73c | 165.75$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c6…2941backed No | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…05afbacked No | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 76c | 120$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…bb89backed No | 22c | 117.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…b4d5backed Yes | 75c | 104.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc3…a6c5backed No | 13c | 103$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…b856backed No | 17c | 102.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed No | 16c | 100.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.