TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$226,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$234,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd5a6…d4f0backed No21c66,455$14,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,029.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked Yes76c34,935$26,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,536.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0540…8913backed No27c15,832$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bf2…fb50backed No30c8,273$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked No19c6,125$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No1c5,963$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.641850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x244b…d87fbacked Yes78c4,572$3,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$989.53785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c0f…9f39backed No2c4,374$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes78c3,820$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.297337%27 W · 46 L+0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4fb…7481backed No24c3,293$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked Yes79c2,923$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.94250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d7…db87backed Yes76c2,776$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.222369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b11…38e8backed Yes80c2,611$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x54fb…e7f3backed No2c2,528$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2370%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No17c2,491$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.89486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes73c2,081$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.3219818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb98a…8990backed No22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb30…cfdbbacked No10c1,931$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No12c1,841$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.475742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes78c1,727$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.052737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes79c1,664$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.0116418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x7f67…f516backed No1c1,199$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8651…8a35backed No23c1,179$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c1,089$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.064157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26f7…9a17backed No20c1,044$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.93633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeea5…8f4cbacked No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0e2…1752backed No21c948.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No21c909.83$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7229430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8192…0664backed No1c882.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd198…8797backed Yes73c840$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-39.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa7…24b8backed Yes78c834.58$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51df…8605backed No13c777.77$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked No18c759$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.82317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes80c702.76$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.128123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed No22c700$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d8…2722backed Yes78c628.92$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.34366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61a1…850cbacked Yes77c521$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No19c515.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.04837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-47.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes74c500$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1314942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4281…1a5abacked Yes77c500$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1132100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a5a…7842backed Yes80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8da6…4f70backed Yes74c500$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No19c498.46$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.388033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2da3…3895backed No21c486$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f5c…c2e0backed No20c481.32$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.57520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No22c472$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.848433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No17c455.39$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2214421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes77c450$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cc0…04c0backed No17c449.21$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ff4…ff03backed No20c442.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No20c416.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1812533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No20c412$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.612744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4460…54d1backed Yes80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed Yes80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafce…c2f6backed No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid0%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e9…441abacked Yes80c400$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No26c388.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003727%10 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x271e…f001backed No14c379$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes53c376$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.721741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e8…a409backed Yes77c358.44$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…d92dbacked No20c358.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes80c350.26$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.012138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8eba…0812backed No18c341$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa164…4686backed No22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13bb…c279backed Yes78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661450%7 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+80.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0834backed No18c277.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed Yes75c250$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No15c233.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No18c216.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.913641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x384c…2688backed Yes79c204.24$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b85…8363backed No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-84%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444816.7%8 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d7f…9941backed Yes79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f7…ece9backed No18c199.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187d…b6adbacked No14c199.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No15c187.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.161650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No18c185$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.414831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x702e…5cf6backed No11c183.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes74c182.43$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.432540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95d2…e336backed No12c175$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc4a0…ebd7backed Yes73c165.75$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4baf…5fdfbacked Yes80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40c6…2941backed No13c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf800…05afbacked No23c134$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-78.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d02…bb89backed No22c117.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe128…ccb4backed No14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes75c104.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc3…a6c5backed No13c103$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…b856backed No17c102.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed No16c100.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-55.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.