AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d1e9975d9899e6f8514f3714b03a22114d6d03803882f390d0e7a5357e66e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,805$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 2c | 8,129$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,931.34 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 34c | 1,363$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.63 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 1,310$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.8 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 78c | 1,209$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…d056backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +1,240.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 19c | 978.82$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.58 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…eb22backed No | 21c | 964$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 907.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.02 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 26c | 700$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 72c | 416.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed Yes | 73c | 408.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked No | 38c | 354.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 37c | 353$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.52 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 77c | 328.35$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.39 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…c9eebacked Yes | 78c | 320.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 5c | 290.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed Yes | 68c | 269.66$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…c614backed Yes | 47c | 240$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 47c | 240$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 237.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 30c | 234.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 205.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 59c | 122.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked Yes | 63c | 117$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…0d3dbacked Yes | 61c | 93.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…50acbacked No | 30c | 91.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c9…fa16backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…768cbacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…0ffbbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…1576backed No | 26c | 48.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed Yes | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 42c | 42.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6d…0510backed Yes | 71c | 42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +199.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…bc74backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed No | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15bf…1848backed No | 50c | 32.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed Yes | 70c | 26.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 57c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.