AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6abe5fe01ca113b7d6040604a8619cadf181d4e4a6d8db3a082542417af806fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5a6…d4f0backed No | 11c | 32,207$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 0c | 8,868$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 5,554$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 1c | 4,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 1c | 3,131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 1c | 2,536$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 4c | 2,453$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 3c | 2,352$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,131$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…c2e0backed No | 3c | 988.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 14c | 955.52$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 821.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…6742backed No | 4c | 781.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 79c | 577$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.64 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 2c | 538.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0076…1f36backed No | 4c | 518.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 472.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775a…ac80backed No | 9c | 466.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 3c | 437.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 5c | 400.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 14c | 331.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 4c | 310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 80c | 303.62$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 197.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked No | 7c | 166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 65c | 123$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 10c | 97.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…847bbacked No | 19c | 66.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 18c | 63.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 75c | 22.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 71c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.