TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,480 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66f3…3dadbacked No26c2,755$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3fc…6742backed Yes1c2,625$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No50c2,175$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.232123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No21c1,924$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.210723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No32c1,823$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.87486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No16c1,779$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.514161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No74c1,725$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.372133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No57c1,477$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.561040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes75c1,376$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.035343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No43c1,361$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.862944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes76c1,326$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.923855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cea…cc13backed Yes47c1,258$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked No26c1,150$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes30c1,119$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.311850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Yes64c1,098$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.21020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-73.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes44c817.98$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.9217824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No44c718.94$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.151650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15b7…af47backed Yes73c715.57$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes47c618.07$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.632737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9db3…1d38backed Yes58c612.4$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.77650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+36.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No33c586.4$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.992740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes79c582.64$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.291553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…51aabacked No40c570.88$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No27c570.78$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.015742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed No35c542.81$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+41.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No52c464$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.781442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes66c424$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.4412839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes56c408.19$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a5a…7842backed No25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c378.1$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9847938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes53c338$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.082035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…40c0backed No60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No38c303.86$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.198853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked No22c300$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+203%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes79c299.99$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.991850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No17c276.67$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.641435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…d92dbacked Yes66c276.48$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb83…96a7backed No44c264.14$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No14c250$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2151216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No31c235.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.425632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked No41c225$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.89666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e46…dc63backed No41c220.68$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No34c212.85$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.611,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2574…144bbacked No50c202$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14845738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes72c200$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf46e…4421backed Yes72c190$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.08425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-65.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes33c188.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2820731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0314…2f6dbacked No32c184.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes39c178$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.421741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6599…efebbacked No31c177.81$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+61.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed No27c177$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+342.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No25c162.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.124157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fa8…593abacked Yes74c161.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No24c156.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8719818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0e2…1752backed Yes66c150.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf2…fb50backed Yes68c147.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes69c140.14$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+36.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes76c132.45$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf24c…32f4backed Yes67c131.36$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No34c130$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.44242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d5…bc0cbacked No24c124.51$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+95.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed No72c119.55$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.03650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c9…1c13backed Yes69c115.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No33c114.82$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8415047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd42…c497backed Yes36c111.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes70c110.69$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No29c108.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.85211.5%6 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0413…8180backed No45c107$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes58c101.75$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.471758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcce4…b401backed Yes76c101.01$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.525632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x130d…3205backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4b…e72fbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.32650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbad…d056backed Yes64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+1,240.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.491650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc704…045cbacked Yes75c97.74$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No53c94.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.694259.5%25 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0834backed No55c90.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes53c85.4$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No26c81.51$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.32757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x56ec…5f73backed No27c75.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.551020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fbe…8f74backed No28c71.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+79.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b0…7decbacked No36c66.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.66475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked Yes72c62.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453759.5%22 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-15.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x11c9…232cbacked No19c62.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+416.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb249…70b5backed No33c60.61$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8544…6e35backed No41c60.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…179abacked No27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+88.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes78c57.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.662913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No24c57.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.429430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa87f…864dbacked Yes73c56.91$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No31c56.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed No25c55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x151c…87b2backed Yes72c53.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…891fbacked Yes58c52.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.