AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf308de92113db67fd64b5240c12e80441af5bdd2adedb42c74103a5e150f5769
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 11c | 5,477$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.54 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 62c | 5,294$3,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.71 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 3,798$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.59 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…d4f0backed No | 14c | 2,864$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 28c | 2,735$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.39 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 2,534$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 44c | 2,525$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.64 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 3c | 2,381$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 50c | 1,898$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 1,852$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.69 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 7c | 1,842$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 16c | 1,609$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.85 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 46c | 1,521$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 1,434$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.66 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 13c | 1,371$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.28 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8c…28dbbacked No | 48c | 1,349$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,248$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.33 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked No | 40c | 1,231$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +203%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,207$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…d4d9backed Yes | 47c | 1,177$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 8c | 1,158$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,111$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb716…f61cbacked No | 15c | 1,030$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf2…fb50backed No | 10c | 1,006$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…d87fbacked Yes | 43c | 999.99$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 52c | 926.56$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 43c | 876.36$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.51 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 18c | 815.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 62c | 805.52$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.52 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 802.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0314…2f6dbacked No | 44c | 790.21$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 43c | 694.2$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.02 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d6…2ee9backed Yes | 63c | 688.27$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 17c | 581$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 65c | 500$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 14c | 486$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 38c | 458.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…3b4bbacked No | 6c | 441.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…9ddabacked No | 11c | 421.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 6c | 383.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 10c | 358.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5c…c2e0backed No | 14c | 350$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 32c | 348.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.79 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 6c | 344.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes | 61c | 341.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4524…3b25backed No | 9c | 328.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 14c | 301.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e72fbacked Yes | 55c | 300$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…b689backed No | 63c | 296.6$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 6c | 288.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 79c | 278.47$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 269.27$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed No | 7c | 268.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 30c | 260$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…7851backed No | 63c | 259.37$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…9e4abacked Yes | 57c | 256.92$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 47c | 251.48$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 42c | 250.74$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed No | 8c | 247.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0144…3f4cbacked Yes | 28c | 229$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 8c | 225.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed No | 7c | 220.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 6c | 211.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 11c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 12c | 209.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes | 47c | 203.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd6…2784backed No | 9c | 201$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…d463backed No | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 191.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 73c | 186.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 10c | 184.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…768cbacked Yes | 56c | 177.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6454…93b4backed Yes | 27c | 174.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 14c | 168.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 61c | 162.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…32f4backed No | 63c | 158.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4c…d6a2backed No | 10c | 156.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d6…e410backed No | 13c | 150.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 41c | 150.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130d…3205backed Yes | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 19c | 136.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 46c | 135.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…bfecbacked Yes | 75c | 135.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 125.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb12…d1b3backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fc…6742backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…38e8backed Yes | 40c | 121.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 96.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 49c | 92.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.