TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6560…e164backed No11c5,477$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.549040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66f3…3dadbacked No62c5,294$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.71862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No16c3,798$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.59486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5a6…d4f0backed No14c2,864$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No28c2,735$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.395742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c2,534$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.521,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes44c2,525$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.648754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No3c2,381$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.814242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes50c1,898$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No13c1,852$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.6919818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No7c1,842$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8714250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No16c1,609$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8510723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No46c1,521$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005644.6%25 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c1,434$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6617824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No13c1,371$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.281435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a8c…28dbbacked No48c1,349$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes75c1,248$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.3315047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked No40c1,231$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+203%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes57c1,207$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.321533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x384a…d4d9backed Yes47c1,177$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No8c1,158$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.947030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes57c1,111$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.832035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb716…f61cbacked No15c1,030$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf2…fb50backed No10c1,006$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed Yes66c1,000$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x244b…d87fbacked Yes43c999.99$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No52c926.56$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.72944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes43c876.36$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.5112839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No18c815.58$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.751850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x14d7…db87backed Yes62c805.52$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.522369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c802.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.092560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0314…2f6dbacked No44c790.21$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No43c694.2$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.0247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d6…2ee9backed Yes63c688.27$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed No17c581$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.468853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No23c500$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.52740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes65c500$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1772737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No14c486$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.988123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No38c458.8$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.514157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd49…3b4bbacked No6c441.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0d…9ddabacked No11c421.63$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked No6c383.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.145211.5%6 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No10c358.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5c…c2e0backed No14c350$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes32c348.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.7912533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No6c344.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.224942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc91…31ebbacked Yes61c341.65$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4524…3b25backed No9c328.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed No14c301.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4b…e72fbacked Yes55c300$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.62650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd52b…5c72backed No7c300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.661353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b0e…b689backed No63c296.6$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No6c288.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x687d…e28bbacked Yes79c278.47$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.742737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-41.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No28c269.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9929430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e94…d649backed No7c268.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes30c260$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.751866.7%12 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+98.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d66…7851backed No63c259.37$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51de…9e4abacked Yes57c256.92$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.72850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8e…5b53backed No47c251.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.21020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes42c250.74$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.228826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…bad5backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.52015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeb9…f6b3backed No8c247.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0144…3f4cbacked Yes28c229$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No8c225.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7514421.5%31 W · 113 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed No7c220.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No6c211.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9313422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed No11c210$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.372540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No12c209.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2625632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked Yes47c203.35$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd6…2784backed No9c201$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.09250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba4…d463backed No14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8168…6857backed No43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No10c199.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No29c191.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7820731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes73c186.58$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.381553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No10c184.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.352913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7c2…768cbacked Yes56c177.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6454…93b4backed Yes27c174.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No14c168.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.232744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x995c…8770backed Yes61c162.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.872850%14 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf24c…32f4backed No63c158.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4c…d6a2backed No10c156.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8d6…e410backed No13c150.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No41c150.1$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.943727%10 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x130d…3205backed Yes31c150$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No19c136.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No46c135.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4879…bfecbacked Yes75c135.22$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c125.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4172935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb12…d1b3backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3fc…6742backed No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b11…38e8backed Yes40c121.28$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.171656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked No41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a9…0c9abacked No12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.14656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No48c96.1$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1889317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No49c92.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.775349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes74c90$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+60.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.