TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$64,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc03…d5c0backed No30c13,592$4,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,092.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90f…131ebacked No1c7,581$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes74c5,972$4,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.434161%25 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes71c4,888$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.61650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes71c4,100$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No25c3,000$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.9945738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes33c2,477$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.672133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-42.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa62a…a8ffbacked Yes66c1,378$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x244b…d87fbacked Yes77c1,223$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.92785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbad…d056backed Yes66c1,107$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+1,240.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No27c1,028$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.4516418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes63c984.88$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.7217824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No59c983.94$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.548220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No28c893.79$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0629430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No22c886.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.815742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No19c808.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.71486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes77c650$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1485733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes42c602.87$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.941741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes69c578.16$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…ce86backed Yes73c551.1$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b11…38e8backed Yes72c522.36$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.631656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70ff…b65fbacked No60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.82123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+164.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked Yes46c454.6$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.191850%9 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+124%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No20c448.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9214250%71 W · 71 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No57c447.03$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.671526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5c…c2e0backed No29c400$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed No76c394.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14d7…db87backed Yes78c385.73$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.732369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5793…6977backed Yes73c357.26$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…75d6backed Yes80c347.5$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No26c318.67$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c93…aafabacked No60c259.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.48450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf3…1412backed No30c254.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes76c245$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.88123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes50c243$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.724045%18 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes72c223.79$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.642737%10 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes64c209.98$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.691650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes76c206$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.448433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No13c205.07$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.619818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5bd…ceaabacked No61c202.79$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.131735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fc…ac29backed Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.081241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96be…9947backed Yes78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed Yes76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No35c199.99$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.264551.1%23 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed No32c199.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.261741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No17c189$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.582035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17d…7c1abacked No32c188.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No27c165.72$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-60.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0314…2f6dbacked No23c163.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x479e…2f6dbacked Yes73c162$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes72c153.15$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.15757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes75c150$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a5a…7842backed No25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+30.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes77c147.94$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.467143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2712…eb71backed No24c140.17$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.333727%10 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-36.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4060…e63cbacked Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26f7…9a17backed Yes76c136.7$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.01633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c136.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9715047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad2d…6d8dbacked Yes71c136.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bf2…fb50backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No24c127.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.892977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes77c125$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.255026%13 W · 37 L-10.6wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes74c120.11$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.949525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes72c120$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb30…cfdbbacked Yes71c112.6$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No22c109$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.481,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes69c105$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca97…5409backed No62c101.39$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf66f…d714backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7a4…5c9ebacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-55.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xcd20…6159backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-59.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd83f…03b1backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c2…768cbacked Yes78c91.08$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No23c80.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187529.3%22 W · 53 L-11.8wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x3eb3…23b2backed Yes71c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick71cpaid+41.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No30c73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…7f6ebacked Yes71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccf…79fbbacked Yes70c62.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02ae…bad5backed Yes71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.52015%3 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No27c57.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4132228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74de…72e8backed Yes70c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4c…d6a2backed No29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe42e…a252backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes75c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.754157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58e9…441abacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.