AI · resolved market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf8fbbe6256e02142cd91c3682f8fe716b584e98253b86d827fa7f736808ed81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 69c | 9,645$6,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,006.54 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,236$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,637$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62da…326dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,162$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 3c | 1,947$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 8c | 1,668$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.85 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…cc1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,604$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 6c | 1,245$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…eb78backed No | 14c | 1,191$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 8c | 1,190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2946…8eb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 12c | 999.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.98 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…3dadbacked No | 53c | 960.93$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 2c | 881.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…a9edbacked Yes | 4c | 763.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 11c | 706.25$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 18c | 499.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 18c | 499$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.18 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 24c | 446.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…fe39backed Yes | 10c | 375.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 337.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 201.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 9c | 166$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…6c4bbacked No | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 88.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 16c | 82.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 74c | 75.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 36c | 55.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?this page
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?No won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?Yes won
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?No won
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.