TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8030…7b74

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
514
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 71 out of 100 (+0.19 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 71 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT12542.4%53 W · 72 L+19.6wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+44.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 125 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+140%+$381.05
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.9
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$216.29
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$616Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$616.49
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$459Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$459
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$99.32
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.02
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.23
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.73
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.96
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.83
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+181.1%+$85.47
Will Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.59
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+258.7%+$395.48
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.95
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.99
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$235.37
Showing 25 of 125 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT7035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.5
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+185.4%+$459.69
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.49
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.99
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.6
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$245
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$90.18
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.38
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$90
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$424
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$21.24
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$81.11
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$35
Anthropic CEO arrested?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+129.4%+$108.22
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.44
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.21
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+224.7%+$159.56
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+131.5%+$46.01
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.49
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT5747.4%27 W · 30 L+13.8wins+0.24per pick23cpaid+54.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
Commodities — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.86
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$93.26
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$204.32
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+188.2%+$204.23
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $52 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+158.4%+$83.15
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.46
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $230 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.93
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$82.41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+170%+$124.12
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$31.87
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+241.1%+$450.82
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$64.75
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+191.1%+$126.09
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT5558.2%32 W · 23 L+15.2wins+0.28per pick31cpaid+73.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
World Politics — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tally Gotliv win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$10.33
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT+227%+$111.12
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.41
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$69.13
Will there be no next Transport Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$43.6
Will there be no next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.8
Will Lucy Powell be the next Culture Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+151.3%+$113.44
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.24
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.68
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.4
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$328Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.5
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$213.33
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.54
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$19.32
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.11
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+186.3%+$92.37
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.49
Will Giovanni Legnini win the 2026 Chieti mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$77.02
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+428.7%+$1,840.85
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win 27-29 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+139.2%+$59.7
Will VOX (VOX) win 13-15 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+197.1%+$437.49
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+148.6%+$46.44
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.15
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.58
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.21
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+107.5%+$112.84
Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$53.33
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$308
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$447.99
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$97.06
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$99.07
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$114.21
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$99.61
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$125.1
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+130.9%+$19.64
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.5
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$213
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.77
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+206.2%+$68.42
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.21
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT2441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $40M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$204.32
Credible FDV above $10M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+250%+$208.39
Laso Finance FDV above $8M one day after launchbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$56.46
Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+217.7%+$172.38
Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+133.1%+$28.02
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+141.5%+$22.28
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.87
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.49
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.3
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Nexus FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.26
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+244.3%+$51.29
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.63
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
OneFootball FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.67
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+296.6%+$149.72
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+359.5%+$211.37
Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+215.7%+$31.27
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Zama auction clearing price above $0.07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 24 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT2254.5%12 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick29cpaid+88.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Gunn appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$34.5
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+269.7%+$120.74
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+207.4%+$146.52
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+371.3%+$190.1
Will Aoi Yuki as Maomao (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.84
Will Lucien Dodge as Akaza (Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (English) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.99
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+280.5%+$487.05
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$27.76
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+250.8%+$361.16
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$105
Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 79 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.04
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+182.2%+$51
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+182.2%+$51
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+215.9%+$60.46
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Hamnet win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+345.6%+$259.14
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+215.9%+$60.46
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will "Hoppers" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.1
All 22 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+38.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+166.9%+$186.74
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.99
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$27.16
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.15
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.99
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+430.3%+$710
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+212.9%+$210.75
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+301.7%+$136.99
Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$48.76
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 Todo Mundo no Rio music festival?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+139.2%+$41.77
Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+242.3%+$67.82
Will Justin Bieber feature SZA during his Coachella performances?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.63
Will Justin Bieber feature Billie Eilish during his Coachella performances?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.89
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.51
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Trump be impeached by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$328.79
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$256.97
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+153.2%+$241.23
Will Maurice Washington be the Republican nominee for SC-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$242.96
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+200.3%+$240.36
Will Samuel Forstag be the Democratic nominee for MT-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.5
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.99
Will Justin McNeal be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+133.6%+$105.93
Will Mayes Middleton win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$87.15
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+150%+$180
Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.77
Will Valerie Foushee be the Democratic Nominee for NC-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
All 17 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.36per pick27cpaid+259.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Stocks — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.5
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+2,677.8%+$1,606.65
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$41.15
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+167.3%+$60.22
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+146.8%+$60.92
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+315.1%+$80.51
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+202.1%+$75.79
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+148.1%+$55.55
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $370 on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.53
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $205 on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$63.75
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $215 on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on March 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+356.4%+$99.77
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+246.5%+$69.01
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-67.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+128.3%+$17.45
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$347.82
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$146.84
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.52
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.34
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.11
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Christopher Waller dissent the next Fed Decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.62
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.5
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$502.39
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.97
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$252
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$643.41
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$186.66
Major US official out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$282.4
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+218.5%+$504.72
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.7
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$69.64
All 13 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.27per pick37cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+237.8%+$183.1
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$77.08
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+149.4%+$29.41
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+191.1%+$160.49
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in September 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+133.6%+$58.17
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$66.82
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+143.3%+$71.27
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 11 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+216.8%+$617.82
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.5
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Hong Kong have between 150-160mm of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+199.5%+$154.63
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NBA: LeBron to Sign With Former Team?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,318.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Campbell's (CPB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.