IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5738e9bcb60cec74a360d76a4dd29a91613a053506bb562b8f909d5a8da9d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $448,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $448,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2d5…2884backed Yes | 2c | 200,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24f0…7ad4backed Yes | 19c | 26,884$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…d3f1backed Yes | 8c | 16,000$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed Yes | 6c | 15,298$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 5c | 13,228$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.26 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 4c | 11,106$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 4c | 9,792$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…d834backed Yes | 8c | 8,892$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked Yes | 5c | 8,860$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.03 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 3c | 8,523$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 4,800$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea86…17f9backed Yes | 6c | 4,101$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,902$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574f…b919backed Yes | 8c | 2,959$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba65…be3dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,804$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 2,167$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1b86backed Yes | 4c | 1,900$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,899$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,398$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,350$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 45c | 1,338$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…12b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,052$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 933.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 841.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18df…704abacked Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e32…79d7backed Yes | 8c | 822.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…b3a8backed Yes | 4c | 812.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a87…8e32backed Yes | 9c | 804.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 3c | 800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 671.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…4ab5backed Yes | 6c | 651.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…d8c6backed Yes | 9c | 578.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b6…2505backed Yes | 14c | 551.52$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked No | 30c | 525$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 30c | 525$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Yes | 3c | 517.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 4c | 508.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…b572backed Yes | 7c | 502$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef4…fdbabacked Yes | 10c | 489.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked No | 33c | 487.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…d5b2backed Yes | 4c | 487$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…82e4backed Yes | 4c | 450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…0b54backed Yes | 9c | 445.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…f86bbacked Yes | 7c | 441.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 12c | 419.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes | 5c | 418.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 4c | 392.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…e1cabacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 293.62$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d0…29cdbacked Yes | 7c | 282.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…72fcbacked Yes | 7c | 270.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 4c | 258.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 8c | 249.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 244.48$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 224.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 7c | 220.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 200.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…968cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…6c50backed Yes | 11c | 185.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…e4d3backed Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdae…c02ebacked Yes | 18c | 112.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1646…2f81backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.