IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52debdcbb9d15ad23efe19c636cb73528d2620fc2a0ff54d9a038e18bbe0b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $315,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $333,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $315,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 487 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 54c | 17,125$9,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,822.39 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…2ebbbacked Yes | 49c | 14,365$7,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,290.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 55c | 13,707$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,209.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 31c | 8,711$2,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,696.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 51c | 7,843$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Yes | 43c | 7,476$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,238.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 47c | 6,655$3,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,113.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed Yes | 58c | 6,535$3,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 6,454$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.43 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 38c | 6,435$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,998.74 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 41c | 5,112$2,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,998.95 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 4,990$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 55c | 4,620$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.49 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x783d…9a35backed Yes | 46c | 4,293$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked Yes | 47c | 3,872$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 55c | 3,825$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 68c | 3,441$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 3,390$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.01 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 41c | 3,386$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f1…65c4backed Yes | 47c | 2,981$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…5822backed Yes | 42c | 2,843$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,637.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 11c | 2,828$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 48c | 2,683$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,383.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 32c | 2,293$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 35c | 2,273$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 2,116$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 29c | 2,062$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9260…b380backed Yes | 29c | 1,967$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…eebabacked Yes | 36c | 1,945$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 67c | 1,884$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.8 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 27c | 1,828$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 1,771$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 46c | 1,769$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 49c | 1,750$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed No | 57c | 1,735$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 15c | 1,699$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 56c | 1,678$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 47c | 1,642$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…cad8backed Yes | 48c | 1,623$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,600$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 58c | 1,581$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 1,506$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 59c | 1,476$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 1,460$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Yes | 51c | 1,410$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 1,402$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 70c | 1,308$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.4 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 24c | 1,307$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455b…59f2backed Yes | 44c | 1,301$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…b57cbacked No | 42c | 1,283$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 50c | 1,276$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 52c | 1,269$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 8c | 1,259$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 1,244$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.58 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 12c | 1,240$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 1,199$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed Yes | 51c | 1,183$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 54c | 1,163$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 33c | 1,156$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.82 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…cf5cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,130$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.2 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…1b86backed Yes | 27c | 1,096$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 42c | 1,057$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.58 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 29c | 999.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 38c | 990.72$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ac…2c1abacked No | 51c | 983$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 905$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 49c | 899.99$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 36c | 887.47$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…40b1backed Yes | 42c | 877.48$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 869.06$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.32 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3f…f07bbacked Yes | 50c | 854.78$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…2ea2backed Yes | 56c | 833.58$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…50e2backed Yes | 47c | 800$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 8c | 797.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…6f8dbacked Yes | 29c | 761.76$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 41c | 757.61$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…572ebacked No | 61c | 709.95$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 40c | 700$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 63c | 692$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 664.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 26c | 664.47$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 32c | 655.94$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 69c | 655$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +182%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 43c | 636.78$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yes | 40c | 621.89$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 8c | 616.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 43c | 615.64$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…ff78backed Yes | 44c | 600$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 599$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.87 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 570$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.86 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes | 36c | 559.54$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…c9fbbacked Yes | 42c | 540.35$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 9c | 531.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…9c4ebacked Yes | 37c | 518.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 55c | 504.58$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e2…0cf6backed Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 51c | 500$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 19c | 500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 54c | 500$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.